Is The Trainer Trying For A Price
The basis of this month’s
angle is a step up in entered claiming price following a good race last start.
Most racing fans believe that when a trainer raises his horse in claiming
price it means that he is not sending the horse out to win, much less planning
to back its chances with his own money. But many trainers supplement their
incomes by backing their horses under certain conditions, and these conditions
should be a signal to the player also.
Few trainers will lay their own
money on the line at odds of less than 4–1, and to increase their charges’
odds a trainer will often step up a clearly sharp horse in claiming price. As
a general rule, the factor that permits one to distinguish between a sharp
horse which has been stepped up for further conditioning and one that is
well-meant and is being stepped up to increase its odds is the date of its
last race.
If a horse is stepped up in
claiming price after turning in a good race 20 days ago, it frequently means
the trainer is giving the horse a conditioning race. But if a horse is stepped
up no more than 20 percent higher than its entered price last start and turned
in a good race within the past 12 days, the move generally means the sharp
horse is well meant and the trainer is after a price. In almost all instances,
the horse that has raced most recently is the correct choice.
The following rules will guide
you when making use of this trainer betting angle:
1) Consider only those horses
that are moving up in claiming price today.
2) Eliminate any horse that
qualifies on Rule 1 if it was claimed last start.
3) Eliminate any horse that has
not started within 12 days; that race having
taken place at the same track as today’s race.
4) Eliminate any remaining
horse that has won both of its last two starts.
5) Finally, eliminate any
contender that is entered to go more than one furlong farther, or one furlong
less, than the distance it ran last start.
6) After making the above
eliminations, any remaining contender that finished in the money last start is
a final contender, provided it is not moving up more than 20 percent in
entered claiming price today.
7) Where two or more qualify,
choose the horse that has started most recently. If two horses have raced on
the same date, choose the one going off at the highest odds today.
November 11, 2000
6th Meadowlands 6 furlongs
Claiming price $16,000
Zi Pep
g.6 $15,000
31Oct00-4Med fst 6f Clm 12,500 5
5 4 1no
13Oct00-2Med fst 6f Clm 12500 5
5 4 36¼
We found a good example in the
sixth race at Meadowlands on November 11, 2000. Three horses — Zi Pep, Pal’s
O K, and Rey de Copas — qualified on Rules 1 to 5, but the latter two
starters were moving up more than 20 percent in claiming price.
Note that the entered claiming
price is not necessarily the top claiming price of the race. Zi Pep, therefore
was moving up only $2,500 (or 20 percent) in entered claiming price rather
than the full $3,500 (28%), which would have disqualified him.
Zi Pep, who had finished in the
money in his most recent race and who had not won both of his top two tries,
was a perfect single qualifier. He returned $12.40 to win.
Ties are the exception rather
than the rule with this effective angle, and we found other winners — some
at higher payoffs — during the month. Look for these angle plays in future
races. u
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