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Selections For: Saturday, January 27, 2018



Gulfstream (Pegasus Full Card) Selections



SATURDAY, JANUARY 27

SPOT PLAYS

GULFSTREAM

Race 12 – The Pegasus Invitational, $16,300,000 purse

1 – #2 West Coast

2 – #5 Collected

3 – #10 Gun Runner

4 – #6 Gunnevera

#2 West Coast was an up-and-comer all season long last year for Bob Baffert, finally culminating with a third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic where he lost to today’s rivals Gun Runner and Collected. Has a great chance to turn the tables on those top contenders today, however, after training well all winter for this outing which will be at a distance that is better for him at 1 1/8 miles. Also has a good post and the optimal running to be successful in this race, loaded with tactical speed but likely to stay just off a pace in this race that figures to be very fast and contentious.

 Play in exacta and trifecta boxes (and supers) with:

#5 Collected, who was second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic behind Gun Runner after winning last year’s Pacific Classic. Collected also gets a good post, which is super important in Gulfstream Park races at this 1 1/8-mile distance, and should get a good set-up from just off the pace. Looms a great bargain on the morning-line odds at 8-1 due mostly to a loss last time in the G2 San Antonio at Santa Anita, but that race was strictly a prep and will give him an edge against key rivals in this field who come in lacking prep races.

 #10 Gun Runner is the logical favorite here and the horse to beat, but this is a tough assignment and at odds of 4-5 he’s worth taking at least somewhat of a shot against. Gun Runner is the Horse of the Year and is dominating at this distance of 1 1/8 miles throughout his career. Stayed in training for this following the Breeders’ Cup so it’ll be no surprise to see him repeat his Classic victory over a similar field. However, he has two things going against him in this race besides the low odds, 1) he’ll be right up on what figures to be an extremely demanding pace, and 2) his post position number 10 is terrible at Gulfstream at this distance, with actually any post outside 6 at this track being among the worst posts a horse can draw anywhere.

#6 Gunnevera is a Florida-trained horse who is also benefitting from a good post draw in this race against the near-impossible outside draws. Gunnevera lost to a few of these in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but was a 3-year-old who improved a lot late in the year. He’s a late closer who projects to get a great fast pace set-up and should come sucking-up late for a superfecta placing.

 

FULL CARD SELECTIONS
SATURDAY, JANUARY 27

GULFSTREAM

RACE 1

1 – #12 Smart Shot            7-2

2 – #11 Haraka                      20-1

3 – #8 Special Trip              6-1

                           

RACE 2

1 – #3 Takechargedelilah                  4-1

2 – #9 Coach Rocks                              3-1

3 – #8 Romantic Moment                6-1

 

RACE 3

1 – #7 Apple Betty              7-5

2 – #4 Daring Duchess      7-2

3 – #2 Summersault          5-1

 

RACE 4

1 – #12 Point to Remember           4-1

2 – #13 Life’s a Parlay                         3-1

3 – #4 Personal Time                           5-1

 

RACE 5

1 – #7 Sargent Drive          9-2

2 – #3 Empirically               7-2

3 – #13 Sir Salib                   5-1

 

RACE 6

1 – #12 Blue Bahia              7-2

2 – #3 Justa Lady                 6-1

3 – #5 Code Warrior          8-1

 

RACE 7

1 – #5 First Growth            7-2

2 – #1 Tale of Silence         3-1

3 – #10 Beasley                     15-1

 

RACE 8

1 – #5 Bullards Alley          2-1           BEST BET

2 – #3 Gold Shield              6-1

3 – #7 Oscar Nominated 3-1

 

RACE 9

1 – #10 Nonna Mela          4-1

2 – #8 Spice Lady                 5-1

3 – #1 Marley’s Freedom 10-1

 

RACE 10

1 – #8 Pay Any Price          3-1

2 – #7 Richard’s Boy          7-2

3 – #6 Rainbow Heir          6-1

 

RACE 11

1 – #5 Team of Teams        10-1

2 – #11 Celestine                 5-2

3 – #8 Perdona                     15-1

 

RACE 12

1 – #2 West Coast               8-1

2 – #5 Collected                   8-1

3 – #10 Gun Runner          4-5

4 – #6 Gunnevera                15-1

 


Also see these items in Selection

2017 ~Stanley Caris' Using Impact Values To Select Breeders' Cup Winners and Longshots
Analyzing The Triple Crown — Stanley Caris



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