FRIDAY, MAY 6
CHURCHILL
SPOT PLAYS
Race 12 – The Kentucky Derby
#15 White Abarrio
Plus play an exacta and trifecta
boxes with #3 Epicenter, #6 Messier, #8 Charge It
#15 White Abarrio is the
winner of the Florida Derby being disrespected on the morning line odds at
10-1. Has the perfect amount of tactical speed to stay close to the pace without
getting mixed up in a fast pace dispute up front, which was his winning tactics
in both the Florida Derby and the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. Beat several of
these challengers in his two good 3yo prep races and has speed figures in the
upper reaches of this field. Perfect outside post.
Play in exacta and trifecta boxes
with #3 Epicenter, who has been the leader of the 3yo division most of
this year and owns top speed figures for trainer Steve Asmussen. Jockey Joel
Rosario sticks with the mount after riding Mo Donegal to win the Wood Memorial.
Owns big early speed, but his victory last time out in the Louisiana Derby was
key because it showed he can rate and doesn’t need a clear lead to win. Won
that race at 1 3/16 miles, so distance is no concern. Won the Risen Star stakes
at Fair Grounds, and the third and second-place horses behind him that day came
back to finish 1-2 in the Blue Grass Stakes. Looks like the real deal, The only
concern is the post position No. 3, because posts 1-2-3 have been awful in the
Derby the last 40 years.
Play in exacta and trifecta boxes
with #6 Messier, who got cooked in the Santa Anita Derby to finish
second after chasing the crazy speed of the leader around the track and setting
the race up for the stalking Taiba. Still one of the top horses in this field
in terms of speed figures, is more seasoned that Taiba which will pay dividends
here with jockey John Velazquez aboard, and should stick around until the
finish if they learned enough last time to avoid getting this horse cooked on
what will be a live Kentucky Derby pace.
Play in exacta and trifecta boxes
with #8 Charge It, who is lightly raced and still has a ton of upside
for trainer Todd Pletcher with Luis Saez aboard. Must turn the tables on White
Abarrio who beat him in the Florida Derby, but he ran a good effort there to be
second and is by the sire Tapit so he should only get better as the distances increase.
If you like White Abarrio, it’s difficult not to include this horse in your
bets at bargain odds.
FRIDAY, MAY 6
CHURCHILL
RACE 1
9 Congressman 4-1
7 Warrior Johnny 3-1
10 Logico 9-2
RACE 2
4 Surfer
Dude 3-1
8 Orbourne 8-1
6 Great Escape 5-2
RACE 3
9 Queen Bourbon 9-2
6 Ready Lady 7-2
7 Final Belle 3-1
RACE 4
1 McLaren Vale 9-2
2 Bye Bye Bobby 9-2
9 Gun Fighter 20-1
RACE 5 – Churchill Distaff Turf Mile
7 In Italian 3-1
8 Speak of the Devil 2-1
6 Lady Speightsphere 5-2
RACE 6
4 Dream Shake 5-2
11 Necker Island 6-1
2 Shared Sense 3-1
RACE 7 – Pat Day Mile
5 Jack Christopher 2-1 Best Bet
1 Major General 9-2
3 Pappacap 6-1
RACE 8 – Derby City Distaff
2 Just One Time 3-1
6 Bell’s the One 5-1
1 Lady Rocket 5-1
RACE 9 – American Turf Stakes
6 Portfolio Company 9-2
7 Sy Dog 7-2
10 Coinage 6-1
RACE 10 – Churchill Downs Stakes
3 Jackie’s Warrior 5-2
1 Aloha West 7-2
5 Reinvestment Risk 7-2
RACE 11 – Turf Classic
6 Shirl’s Speight 3-1
5 Mira Mission 10-1
1 Ivar 4-1
RACE 12 – The Kentucky Derby
15 White
Abarrio 10-1
3 Epicenter 7-2
6 Messier 8-1
8 Charge It 20-1
RACE 13
11 Laughing Boy 6-1
6 Candy Tycoon 9-2
3 Life Is Hard 6-1
RACE 14
11 Strobe 3-1
12 Bourbon Heist 4-1
3 Ludwig 6-1
9 Master Game 10-1
