Feb 17, 2006
Another Addition to Your OTB Arsenal
By: Ray Taulbot
Many readers who wish to take advantage of off-track betting and simulcasting have written to ATM asking for a method which will enable them to make decent selections with the least expenditure of time and effort. Accordingly, this month we are offering a method we gave our readers not too many years ago because it is fast and givesa great number of winners at nice prices.
The majority of those who have written to us complain that they lack the time necessary for careful pace handicapping. Others explain that they are weekend players unable to attend the races except on Saturday and holidays. Finally, a few state that they need good prices, largely because they lack sufficient capital to make substantial wagers. All of these readers imply that they want a method that is easy to use, will produce good prices and a reasonable winning percentage.
That"s quite an order to fill. However, it's the policy of this magazine to give its readers what they want insofar as that is possible. It is not difficult to present amethod that will produce good prices, but it is an exacting task to find such a methodthat also produces a reasonable wining percentage.
Most difficult of all is to develop a price method that avoids extensive runs of consecutive losers. Price and good winning percentage are not kissing cousins. However, over the years we have noted that many of the better-priced winners were horses that were very close up at both the first and second calls in their last race.
If price was to be the main objective, and if long runs of consecutive losses were to be avoided, certain types of races must be eliminated from consideration. For example, added-money races and turf races proved to be unprofitable. Likewise, winners in their last start do not show a margin of profit sufficiently large to warrant their inclusion.
Surprisingly, maidens—which we do not look upon with great favor—proved profitable when played in conjunction with the basic idea upon which this method is based.
As might be expected, the date of the last race reveals itself as more important than any other single factor. In short, 12 days is the most profitable date spread between a horse's last race and today.
The reader may wonder: Why 12 days? Why not seven, eight, 10 or15 days? Twelve days proves to be the optimum time frame because it allows the trainer a four-day margin in which to find a suitable race beyond eight days, which is generally accepted as the ideal rest period following the last race.
When all tracks are considered, regardless of their class, we find that the highest percentage of winners consists of horses that started within eight days. This means that to take full advantage of this feature, a trainer must find a race within that period where his horse is eligible for entry. This is not always possible. Research reveals that in a number of instances a trainer often needs additional days in order to find a suitable race. A careful examination of this situation shows that in almost all cases, a suitable race is found within 12 days. So it is clear that the highest percentage date of eight days should be extended for four days.
However, research also reveals that if the date rule is extended beyond 12 days, the runs of consecutive losers increase. Hence, it was decided that while the date limit of 12 days since running the last race deprived us of a few winners that might otherwise have been backed, the increased number of consecutive losses actually reduced the margin of net profit over an extended period. So 12 days becomes our rule.
After extensive study, we found that where separation is necessary, it was better to use a point credit separation than it was to attempt to applyone rigid rule. We found that five factors, each of equal value—namely, one point—produced better results than could be obtained by using one hard and fast separation rule. These five factors are:
1) Latest date last start;
2) Fastest time in which the winner ran the qualifying race;
3) Highest speed rating earned by the contenders;
4) Highest class last start;
5) Finished closest up in the qualifying race.
When each of these factors was given a value of one point, they proved successful in separating contenders.
Price proved troublesome in that a qualified horse often went off at short odds. After experimenting with several ideas, it was finally found the only possible way the player could be sure of obtaining 4-1 or more on his winning selections was to make a price demand part of the qualification for play.
To meet the request for a non-time consuming method, we had to eliminate pace ratings entirely and depend upon the time in which the winner ran each contender's last race.
The final method, which follows, is by no means that best way to make thoroughly sound selections. But it is the best so-called "lunch hour" method developed to date. It is easy to use, it points out a reasonably good percentage of winners at odds of 4-1 or more, and does avoid unreasonable runs of consecutive losers. Following are the selection rules:
1. Play no added money races and no turf races. All other types may be played.
2. First eliminate all horses whose last race was run more than 12 days ago, and allhorses that won their last race.
3. Eliminate any non-maiden that has not won in the two years shown in its consistency record.
4. In order to qualify, a horse must have been leading at one of the first two calls in its last race, and it must have been within one length of the leader at the other of the first two calls.
first call second call
A) 1 3 hd
B) 2 1 1
C) 1 1
5. The selection must go off at 4-1 or more.
If two or more horses qualify separate them according to the following points:
a. Earned highest speed rating last start: one point;
b. Started at most recent date: one point;
c. Faster winner's time in last start: one point;
d. Entered in highest class last start: one point;
e. Finished closest up in last start: one point.
The contender with highest number of points is the final selection.
You should get your share of nice-price winners with this off-track betting angle, even when you have minimal time and effort to spend on your selections.
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