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Aug 18, 2006

AMERICAN TURF CLUB LEAD

By: JOE GIRARDI


When the big meetings like Saratoga come around there is usually excitement among race fans for many reasons. One is the allure of the racetrack itself, the town of Saratoga and the surrounding areas but one of the biggest attractions with these big meetings are the betting opportunities. These opportunities present themselves for many reasons. One of them is that the pools are larger at Saratoga than they are at Belmont or Aqueduct and another reason is that there are many amateur bettors that are there for vacation that are playing into these pools. The multi race pools like the pick three, pick four and pick six are the pools to really take a shot at and the best chances to make a big score.

One of these opportunities presented itself on Monday, August 14th, 2006. There was a one day carryover in the pick six from the previous day of $77,968. These are probably the best times to step in and play the pick six, the carryover is a good amount but it is not a 3 or 4 day carryover when you have the big syndicates stepping in and investing a lot of money. With the one day carryover you would be ensured of a good pool but not one where the syndicates can show their muscle.

The fourth race and first leg of the pick six was a New York State bred maiden special weight on the turf going 5 ½ furlongs. From the horses that have run there were only two that could be used, #8 FIONA FREUD, #9 JACLYN JOY and the well bet firster #10 HOLD THAT THOUGHT was another we added to our tickets. #10 HOLD THAT THOUGHT weaved his way through to score going away.

In the fifth race, we used two horses, the two favorites in the race and they ran one two. #7 LITTLE MISS ZIP wired them in her fourth start back this year running back to some of her races from last year. #6 STOLEN STAR the favorite in the race could only manage second. The sixth race was next and it looked like a three horse race from a betting standpoint. #1 entry of CAPTIVA BAY and WINNING SEQUENCE from the Bill Mott barn, #2 DELMARVA, a filly with backclass but returning from the layoff and #5 DEAN’S LIST who was a troubled sixth on opening week. They ran 2-1-5 to finish 1-2-3 in the race and kept our pick six ticket alive into the fourth leg, the seventh race.

The Noble Nashua stakes was next, a stakes for New York breds and it looked like a 2-horse race on paper and it played out that way on the track. #5 CHOWDER’S FIRST and #9 NAUGHTY NEW YORKER, laid over the field and they ran that way with NAUGHTY NEW YORKER, who was a lot closer to the pace under Edgar Prado got the job done over CHOWDER’S FIRST.

In the 8th race, the Troy Stakes, going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf it again appeared to be a 2 horse race on paper. The #2 WEIGELIA who was a big winner two back at Belmont was the 4-5 favorite and the #3 SECOND IN COMMAND, who was coming off the claim by the Dutrow Jr. barn, whose hits are over 45% off the claim and was claimed with this race in mind and was undefeated in two tries over this course was sent off at a very generous 5-1. After sitting behind the speed, Prado angled him out and he went on for an easy win, setting the course record a feat he accomplished last year but lost it since.

We were now alive into the last leg of the pick six with four shots at glory for a $576 shot. The sequence was 3x2x3x2x2x4=$576. We had the #2 DORYPHAR, who showed a good second early this year for the Clement barn who was having a good meeting, the #3 ROYAL IRISH LASS, well bred filly adding blinkers and possible pacesetter, #6 GRAND SEPTEMBER, a well bred GRAND SLAM filly showing improvement for the Biancone barn and #8 NUNNERY who was making her second start of her career and adding lasix. NUNNERY was a late scratch so we moved to the post time favorite of #7 CORAL BEACH. ROYAL IRISH LASS was never close to the pace but did close well for a good second to DORYPHAR who stalked the longshot leader and never looked back. YES! We hit the pick six, with a few partners but we did it. Lets take out our calculator and figure the parlay. The prices were, $6.70, $9.00, $6.10, $6.70, $12.20, and $11.80. a $2 parlay comes to $11,086. When the payout was shown before the race at almost three times the parlay, $31,701 we were very surprised. But the reason we stepped into a play like this was because we knew the hidden value of the one day carryover and the fact that the pools at Saratoga are inflated because of the tourists that play into the pools each day.

These opportunities do present themselves every once in a while for the expert player and you must pick your spots but this score definitely makes the meeting. Let's hope that there are more to come before the six weeks are up. Good Luck!

 



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