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Oct 05, 2007

Repeater Power Plays

By: Ray Taulbot


Ask yourself a simple question: Do you have the temperament to lose nine out of 10

plays—even if the tenth is a winner at a $30.00 mutuel? Most horseplayers can't stomach

 the idea of a zero-for-nine streak. In addition,they don't mind getting a low price if they

get a high percentage of winners. This may be due in small part to the fact that many ATM

 readers are progression players.

The angle with the highest winning percentage that weknow of is a repeater angle which

we outlined to our readers some years ago. Over the long term, its payoffs will average a

little more than 3-1 but it snags a double-figure payoffon occasion.

We are sure that the vast majority of our readers realize that current condition is the one

 factor which most strongly affects race results.This is true, of course, because it is current

 condition which actually governs the effectiveness of class and speed. We certainly do not

 argue that it is simple to determine the exact class of a horse. However, the horseplayer

 must attempt just that in order to produce the desired results.

However, we won"t ignore class entirely. We'll attempt to handle this factor through weight conditions rather than through the lengths andcomplicated work of class graduation.

For example, you know that if a horse drops weightafter a winning effort, the drop in

 weight usually indicates that the horse is moving upin class. But if the recent winner goes

 back next start carrying the same poundage itcarried in its recent victory, or additional

weight, then you know generally that thehorse is not actually stepping up in class,

regardless of what the claiming price or gradeof the race indicates.

Thus weight is employed as a general yardstick of class shifts. And that is what we shall

 do in making the selections for the "repeatermethod" given here.

To begin with, we know that any horse that won by asmuch as two lengths in a race that

 was run very recently is a sharp horse.

Therefore, if such a horse is not overmatched next start, it is logical to assume that it is,

 at least, one of the best prospects in a given race.

All such horses do not win their next start, due to many reasons. But a good percentage

of them do make the grade, and a very high percentage of them finish in the money.

Considering these facts, it is difficult to think of any spot-play method which is likely to

produce a great number of winners, not to mentiona higher percentage of in-the-money

 horses.

One of the strongest features of this method is itsreliance on the date of the last race. It

 would be foolish to back a horse simply becauseit won by two lengths or more last

start, regardless of when this victory took place. Such a race indicates sharp condition as

 of the date of the race, but it offers no assurance that the horse is equally as sharp today. Therefore, if we do not limit the number of elapsed days between the victory and today, we

 are not taking due note of the conditionfactor.

One day and a night is sufficient for a horse to lose its sharp condition. Hence, every elapsed

day between the most recent race and their next start did not exceed 10 days. This same study revealed that the majority of all repeaters were horses that did not drop weight off the scoring

 effort. That is, the majority ofrepeat winners were horses that started within 10 days of the

 initial victory, and did notdrop weight next start.

Some of the successful plays repeated under a poundage identical with the weight they

carried in their winning race last start. Others were horses that picked up anywhere from one

 to nine pounds next start.

There were, of course, some repeaters that dropped anywhere from one to 10 pounds in the

 race following their scoring effort. They were in the minority.

The very fact that a trainer moves his horse down following a two-length victory indicates that

 he is none too sure that the horse iscapable of another victory. This lack of assurance may be

 due to any one of severalfactors. The horse may not be sound, for example, and its trainer

fears that it cannot runback to its previous race unless it is entered with cheaper animals.

Or again, the last race may have taken more out of thehorse than meets the eye in the charts. Knowing this the trainer is aware that if it is to repeat it must go back against cheaper stock.

However, since our research showed that among claimersthere were quite a few winners

which dropped only a pound or two we will allow a horse todrop as much as two pounds

provided it is moving up at least 25 percent in claiming value.This increase must not be the mandatory one after a claim.

Following are the rules for making the selections.

1. First, we consider only those horses that won theirlast start by two lengths or more.

2. Second, this scoring race must have been run withinthe past 10 calendar days.

3. The horse's weight today must be the same as, ormore than it carried last start in its

winning race in allowance races. In claiming races a horse may drop as much as two pounds providing it is moving up at least 25 percent invalue. This increase must not be the mandatory

 one after a claim.

4. There is not play on handicap or stakes races.

5. We never accept a horse that is just one race removed from the maiden ranks. This means

 that we never back a last-start winner that has not won at least two races during its lifetime

record shown with the past performance consistency box.

6. We accept no qualified horse that lost more than one length in the stretch run last start.

 For example, a horse may have been leading at the stretch call by three lengths, winning by

 two. That is okay. But, if the horse lost morethan one length during the stretch run then we

do not accept it.

7. The race today must be within one furlong of the distance which the horse ran last start.

8. Track conditions today are not considered but we never accept a horse to repeat that did

not win last start on a track that was either fastor good.

9. Further, we have found that it does not pay to back horses that are running more than

1-1/8 miles. These grinds to not produce a sufficient number of repeaters to warrant bothering

 with them.

10. It pays to confine our action to horses that are nomore than 7 years old. These types do

 repeat sometimes, but generally speaking they arenot profitable investments.

Now, a bit of final instruction on Rule 3. Remember that apprentice allowance are actually a

 part of the weight. Hence they must be included when qualifying the horse on the weight factor.

For example, suppose a horse carried 112 last start.Here a small "5" after the jockey's name

 informs us that this horse received a five-pound apprentice allowance. Therefore, the conditions

 of that race demanded that thehorse carry 117 pounds. The higher weight must be

employed in figuring today's weight requirement.

You should also determine whether the horse is carrying overweight today as this might qualify

 an otherwise eliminated horse on the weight requirement. If you stick strictly to the rules and

 pass up all marginal plays and races where there are two or more qualifiers, we think you will

 be more than satisfied with this repeater method.



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