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Feb 13, 2009

American turf club lead


With so many computer programs out there telling you they have the key to beating the horses; we will give you a simple system that can be used at the track each day.

                This system covers a lot of ground and has a lot of points to check, so you may get the idea that it's too complicated for you, but actually it's simple, quick and easy, once you've had a little practice with it. The rules are set down in the order they should be applied, and then you can rate a few races just for practice. I think you'll like this rating plan. Here's how it goes.

RULE ONE- Eliminate any horse in the race that has not been to post within the last 30 days. Also eliminate maidens. All other in the race are given a rating.

RULE TWO- Rate each horse off its last five races. Do not count any race in which the horse bled, pulled up, broke down or otherwise failed to finish. If there is such a race in the horse's last five starts, and if the horse has not been in the money since the race in which it failed to finish, it is eliminated. However, if it has been in the money since this race, then it is rated. Just ignore the race in which it failed to finish and use the five most recent races it has run.

RULE THREE-Give the horse the following credits for the last five races it has run:

5 points for each winning race;

4 points for each race when it ran second or third;                                       

3 points for each race when it finished 4th, 5th or 6th, not beaten over 5 lengths;

2 points for each race when it finished 4th, 5th or 6th and was beaten by MORE than 5 lengths.

No points for any race when it ran lower than 6th. The total number of points earned by allotting the above credits represent the horse's BASIC RATING.

RULE FOUR-To the basic rating, ADD any points the horse may earn according to the following table of credits: 3 POINTS if it finished in the money in half of the races it has run this year (if it raced fewer than six times this year, use the record of this year and last combined);

3 MORE POINTS if it has won one-fourth of the races it has run this year (if it has started fewer than six times this year, use record of this year and last combined);

5 MORE POINTS if it is not stepped up in class off its last race;

2 MORE POINTS if it carries less weight today than it carried in any recent race (not more than 30 days ago) when it finished in the money;

3 MORE POINTS if its past performances show a race in which it finished in the money at the EXACT DISTANCE of today's race;

3 MORE POINTS if it has turned in a fast workout within the last seven days;

3 MORE POINTS if it has won a race at the CURRENT MEETING;

5 MORE POINTS if ALL of its last five races were run at major tracks.

RULE FIVE-The horse with the highest final rating figures to be the best horse in the race, but a horse should have an advantage of at least five points over the nearest contender to warrant a play, unless it is 5-to-1 or more, in which case it is worth a playing even if it has only a slight margin of points.

To clear up some of these factors let us take a look at some of these rules. For the rule on giving a horse 5 points if it has not stepped up in class you must use some of your own insight. With the different class ranges today be on top of which ones are actually a move up in class and which ones are not.

                Another factor that should be looked at is the one about workouts. The rule which gives three points for a fast workout again has to be looked at. People may have a different opinion of what is a fast workout. Considering it is only one rule and not the most important one; you can either disregard it or if you have a good feel for what a fast workout is then you can use it.  

 

PLEASE NOTE:

 

We will start our look at the Road to the Kentucky Derby next week.



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