Oct 24, 2003
Race to Race Odds Patterns
By: Ray Taulbot
Knowing that 90 percent of all racegoers do not do any serious
handicapping, it is not surprising that so many readers have written ATM to request what
amounts to a "magic angle" formula. What they want to be able to do is to go to
the track, buy a program or Daily Racing Form, make their selections and get a lot
of winners at good prices.
At this point, we'll state that "there ain't no such animal."
No angle will cover every types of race found on a nine-race card, from maidens through
the feature event. What these fans should do is provide themselves with enough angles to
adequately cover all types of races.
If they don't want to go to the trouble of memorizing a half dozen good
angles, then they should stick to just one, making their biggest bet on whatever horse it
points out (If indeed there is one) and go about having fun with two-dollar bets on the
rest of the card.
In this respect, we think it best for such fans to stick to a good
trainer angle. If they get involved with raw time and speed ratings from the past
performances, they can miss the boat.
Before we go into this month's angle, we'd like to point out that
almost all trainer angles demand more than cold facts and figures from the past
performance data. They demand an awareness of what the trainer has done and what it
appears he is likely to do today. In short, a little dab of "mind reading" won't
hurt and it is not too hard to acquire this with experience.
This angle will pick winners in all types of races if the player uses
such awareness. It will pick winners in maiden races because a horseman wants just as much
to win a bet with a maiden as he does with a handicap horse. However, it is best with
claimers because too often with classier horses, there are too many contenders. Very
often, one can find a single qualified angle horse in a claiming race and this makes a
particularly solid bet.
In using this particular angle, the player must keep in mind the power
of "back class." For the benefit of those who may not be entirely familiar with
the term back class, it has two meanings. One of these pertains to the class in which the
horse has raced prior to its last race. However, when the term is used in conjunction with
an angle, it takes on a slightly different meaning. Since the angle we are presenting
comprises the horse's last three races, back class therefore means the horse's
class level prior to the second race back. Any reader who uses this angle without
consideration of pace or other basic methods of handicapping should always make sure that
in some race prior to the second race back, the horse finished well in a class equal to or
higher than its entered class today or showed good early speed in better company than it
is meeting today. We will explain these points and present examples shortly.
First, we'll put the points we are looking for into proper perspective:
1. Watch for horses whose odds went up five points or more in their
next-to-last race after a trying effort in their third or fourth race back.
2. In order to qualify on this angle, the horse's odds must have
dropped at least five points last start as compared to the odds at which it was held in
its next-to-last race.
3. Such a horse must have run a race not more than 15 days ago in
claiming races and 20 days ago in allowances or feature races; the more recently it was
run, the better the selection.
4. Though not a hard and fast rule, if the horse is the only qualified
angle horse in the race, the better the selection.
5. If there are two qualified angle horses in the race try to choose
the one for which you see some additional favoring factor. If you do not find any
additional favoring angle, play the horse going off at the best price if there are only
two. If there are more than two angle horses in the race, skip it.
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