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May 07, 2010

American Turf Club Lead

By: Joe Girardi

            The 136th Kentucky Derby has come and gone and we look forward to the Preakness now that will be run in a week’s time. The 20 horse field in the Derby had to navigate over a sloppy/sealed track which was playing to off the pace runners most of the day.

            As the field of 20 readied for the start of the race the slight favorite was LOOKIN AT LUCKY who was sent off at 6-1 with SUPER SAVER going off as the second choice at 8-1. SIDNEY’S CANDY was the only other horse that was in single digit odds as he was just under 10-1 going off at 9.5-1. As the gates opened CONVEYANCE, the expected speed from the Bob Baffert barn was sent right to the lead with SIDNEY’S CANDY not that far off racing in second while LINE OF DAVID got away in third. LOOKIN AT LUCKY wasn’t very lucky having to take up soon after the start and then again before they reached the first turn. SUPER SAVER and jockey Calvin Borel or “Bo-Rail” as he is sometimes known for his prowess of getting to the rail, found a nice cozy spot down inside about 6 lengths off the lead.

            As they headed down the backstretch the fractions were fast, 22:3 for the opening quarter mile, 46 flat for the half and the six furlongs went in 1:10:2. As they approached the mile mark the leaders started to fade with NOBLE’S PROMISE taking over the lead while SUPER SAVER gained on the inside to move into second. PADDY O’PRADO had made a move by that time to get into contention but had to swerve out in the lane for clear sailing but was gaining on the leader late and tired late to finish third. SUPER SAVER with that rail run started to get away from the other runners leading by three lengths as they entered deep stretch. ICE BOX, who raced well back in the field for most of the race came flying to run second but as most people saw it he was the best horse. As they were entering the stretch and he had all of his momentum he had to steady, lose some position, get to the outside where he steady two more times before finally getting to the far outside and flew home for second just nailing PADDY O’PRADO late by a neck. Even though ICE BOX was probably best you have to expect some traffic in a 20 horse field especially one that seemed so competitive going in and maybe the plan should have been different on ICE BOX as to stay away from that trouble. Despite that big run in that race he is expected to skip the Preakness and wait for the Belmont Stakes three weeks later. PADDY O’PRADO, on the other hand ran a very good race and seems like an improving horse, if you go back and watch the race however, he probably should have been second if his jockey Kent Desormeaux would have rode him out to the wire instead of looking back at the 1/16th pole. He is another who is expected back for the Preakness.

            The winner SUPER SAVER which gave jockey Calvin Borel his third Kentucky Derby win in the last four years also gave his trainer Todd Pletcher his first Kentucky Derby win. Another who much enjoyed the win of SUPER SAVER was Glen Fullerton of Kilgore, Tx who won a contest through CNBC that awarded a $100k to make a win bet on the Kentucky Derby. He chose SUPER SAVER as his horse to make that win bet on and the return on that $100k bet was $900,000. After the race he got to meet the winning jockey Calvin Borel and suffice to say they couldn’t get that smile off his face. SUPER SAVER will now move on to Maryland for the Preakness and try to continue his run towards a Triple Crown.

            Others that may join him there are as follows: DUBLIN, PADDY O’PRADO, LOOKIN AT LUCKY, JACKSON BEND, AIKENITE, A LITTLE WARM, CARACORTADO, HURRICANE IKE, PLEASANT PRINCE, SCHOOLYARD DREAMS, NOBLE’S PROMISE, CONVEYANCE, FIRST DUDE, AND NORTHERN GIANT. It should be a very competitive race regardless of who goes and the field size alone should make for another very good betting opportunity. Good Luck!

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