Jul 02, 2010
American Turf Club Lead
The following is an interesting system and can be used by just going over the past performances of each race. Good Luck!
With so many computer programs out there telling you they have the key to beating the races, we'd like review a simple system that can be used at the track every day.
This system covers a lot of ground and has a lot of points to check, so you may get the idea that it’s too complicated. Actually, it’s simple, quick and easy, once you’ve had a little practice with it. The rules are set down in the order they should be applied; we suggest that readers rate a few races just for practice.
The basic system rules are as follows:
RULE ONE: Eliminate from consideration any horse in the race that has not been to post within the last 30 days; also eliminate maidens. All others in the race are given a rating.
RULE TWO: Rate each horse off its last five races. Do not count any race in which the horse bled, pulled up, eased or otherwise failed to finish. If there is such a race in the horse’s last five starts, and if the horse has not been in-the-money since the race in which it failed to finish, it is eliminated. However, if it has been in-the-money since this race, then it is rated; ignore the race in which it failed to finish and use the five most recent races it has run.
RULE THREE: Give each horse under consideration the following credits for the last five races it has run:
Five points for each winning race;
Four points for each race when it ran second or third;
Three points for each race when it finished fourth, fifth or sixth, not beaten by more five lengths;
Two points for each race when it finished fourth, fifth or sixth and was beaten by MORE than five lengths.
No points are assigned for any race in which the horse ran lower than sixth. The total number of points earned by assigning the credits listed above represents the horse’s BASIC RATING.
RULE FOUR: To the basic rating, add any points the horse may earn according to the following table of credits:
Three points if it finished in-the-money in half of the races it has run this year (if it raced fewer than six times this year, use the record of this year and last year combined);
Three more points if it has won one-fourth of the races it has run this year (if it has started fewer than six times this year, use record of this year and last combined);
Five more points if it is not stepped up in class off its last race;
Two more points if it carries less weight today than it carried in any recent race (not more than 30 days ago) when it finished in-the-money;
Three more points if its past performances show a race in which it finished in-the-money at the exact distance of today’s race;
Three more points if it has turned in a fast workout within the last seven days;
Three more points if it has won a race at the current meeting;
Five more points if all of its last five races were run at major tracks.
RULE FIVE: The horse with the highest final rating is the selection, but a horse should have an advantage of at least five points over the nearest contender to warrant a play, unless it is 5-1 or more, in which case it is worth a playing even if it has only a slight margin of points.
To clear up some of these rules, let's take a look at them in detail. For the five-point assignment in Rule Four applicable to horses that have not stepped up in class, you must use some of your own common sense regarding class distinctions.
Another factor that should be looked at is the point assignment for a fast workout. Bettors may have differing opinion of what constitutes a fast workout. Since this is only one rule and not the most important one, you can either disregard it or, if you have a good feel for what a fast workout is, it may be applied appropriately.
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