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May 06, 2011

American Turf Club Lead

This week’s lead is a system concerning two-year-olds. With the new two-year-olds upon us, especially in New York, take a look and save for future use.

The two year-olds are with us again, or soon will be, which means it’s time to remember the truism about two-year-olds: they’re honest runners, and those that can run will run one good race after another. They’re too young to have acquired the lazy habits some older horses have acquired; they’re full of the zip of youth and since their races are short, they are asked only to run as fast as they can all the way. The result is, the speedy and game ones show their colors right away and keep running good races for weeks and months, there’s a way to cash in on this annual phenomenon of racing. Here’s how it works.

When the new two-year olds start running in your area, start clipping the result charts of their races. Out of each such race you will pick several horses. The only ones you want are the ones that run good races the very first time they start.

Begin by selecting only those two-year-old first starters that finish in the money or within two lengths of the winner, or which attract a favorable comment from the chartmaker, such as “closed well”, “raced well,” etc.

Make out a card on each horse, with its name, the date of the good race, the track condition, the class of the race and the official odds quotations. This must be done every day. For convenience in checking up, keep the cards in alphabetical order.

Now, each day after you have made the selections for the previous day, check the horses selected against the entries for that day. If any of the horses picked is to start that day, keep out the card until the results of the races are known.

The next step is to eliminate the horses that do not run a good race second time out. In short, we want only horses that run two good races in a row. If a horse runs a good race first time out and a poor race in its second start throw away its card and pay no more attention to it. But if both races are good, keep the card, for that horse is to be followed.

In checking on a horse for its second start, take into consideration the track condition. If the horse was picked out of a race that was run on a fast or good track, and the second start is made on an “off” track, (muddy, heavy, sloppy or slow) it should not be eliminated, for it is possible that it did not like the track condition. Keep its card until it runs again on a fast or good track, and then if it runs a poor race, it should be thrown out. To state it briefly, give the horse another chance if there is a possibility it did not like the track condition.

However, if the horse was picked out of a race that was run on an “off” track, it must run a good race next time out no matter what the track condition. We figure any good horse can race well on a fast track.

All horses that run two good races in a row are retained, the others are eliminated. After a horse runs two consecutive good races, give it a rating on the following basis:

If the horse won both of its starts, it gets 10 points. If it won one of them, it gets 5 points. If it finished second both times, it get 5 points. Otherwise it gets no credit.

Now look at the prices in both races. If the horse was favorite both times, it gets 10 more points. If it was favored only once, it gets an additional 5 points. If the odds in both races were less than 4 to 1, and it was not favorite on either occasion, it gets 3 points.

Now check the class of the two races. For a maiden race, give the horse 5 points. For an allowance race without the maiden clause give it 10 points. For a Stakes or Handicap race, give it 15 points.

Continue checking the entries and selecting new horses every day. Keep the “rated horses in a separate file, for they are the only ones that will be played.

When a “rated” horse runs two bad races in a row, take its card out if the files in other words, drop it from the list. Otherwise, each “rated” horse is considered every time it runs.

If this sounds a little complicated, it is only because we went into great detail to make everything perfectly clear. Actually, you will find it is quite easy to rate the horses once you have had a little practice, and your list will always include better two-year-olds.

            Next week we will recap the Kentucky Derby!

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