Jun 28, 2013
QUICK PICKS FOR THE CASUAL PLAYER
By: RAY TAULBOT
following is an article by Ray Taulbot that was developed for the recreational
player and with the advent of simulcast wagering this may come in handy, good
difficult to present a method that will produce good prices, but it is an
exacting task to find such a method that also produces a reasonable winning
percentage. Most difficult of all is to develop a price method that avoids
extensive runs of consecutive losers. Price and good winning percentage are not
involves a toilsome effort to create a price method that requires only a little
time in which to make the selections. In short, it is a job that requires more
research than we could accomplish in the limited time at our disposal for such
work. Therefore, we have assigned the research to one individual who has
devoted a lot of time to checking a basic idea we had in mind.
years, we have noted that many of the better-priced winners were horses that
were very close up at both the first and second calls in their last
race. This was the starting point at which our researcher began his work.
developed that if price was to be the main objective, and if long runs of
consecutive losses were to be avoided, certain types of races had to be
eliminated from consideration.
added-money races, turf races and steeplechase events proved to be
unprofitable. Likewise, horses who won their last start did not show a margin
of profit sufficient to warrant their inclusion.
maidens proved to be profitable when played in conjunction with the basic idea
upon which the research was based.
have been expected, the date of the last race revealed itself as more important
than any other single factor. In short, it was found that 15 days was the most
profitable date spread between a horse’s last race and today.
may wonder why 15? Why not seven, or eight, or ten? Fifteen proved to be the
best because it allows the trainer a three-day margin in which to find a
suitable race beyond 23 days which is generally accepted as the ideal rest
period following the last race.
tracks are considered, regardless of their class, we find that the highest
percentage of winners are horses that started within 12 days.
that to take full advantage of this race a trainer must find a race within that
period where his horse is eligible for entry. This is not always possible.
Research revealed that in a number of instances a suitable race was found
within15 days. So it became clear the highest percentage date of 12 days should
be extended by three days.
extensive study of this problem, we found that where separation is necessary it
was better to use a point credit separation than it was to attempt to apply one
that five factors (which we’ll outline below) produced better results than
could be obtained by laying down one hard and fast separation rule. When each
of these factors was given a value of one point, they proved successful in
troublesome in that frequently a qualified horse went off at short odds. After
experimenting with several ideas, we found that the only possible way the
player could be sure or receiving 4-1 or higher on his winning selection was to
make a price rule part of the qualification for play. Therefore, no horse is
played unless its odds are 4-1 or more five minutes before post time.
In order to
meet the request for a non-time-consuming method, we had to eliminate pace
ratings entirely and depend upon the time in which the winner ran each
contender’s last race in tie-breaking situations.
we developed is by no means the best way to make thoroughly sound selections.
However, it is the best "quick pick" method developed to date.
It is easy
to use, isolates a reasonably good percentage of winners at odds of 4-1 or
higher, and does avoid unreasonable runs of consecutive losers.
We do not
advocate its use by those who are sophisticated handicappers. The method was
researched and designed to fill the needs of recreational horseplayers. We
present this method with the hope that it will fulfill their needs. Following
are the selection rules:
1. Play no added money
races, no turf races, no steeplechase events. All other types may be played.
2. First eliminate all
horses whose last race was run more than15 days ago, and all horses that won
their last race.
3. Eliminate any non-maiden
that has not won in the two years (as shown in its two-year and career box
score) or does not show a win in its past performance.
4. In order to qualify,
a horse must have been leading, that is running first, at one or both of the
first two calls in its last race, and it must have been within one-half
length of the leader at the other of the first two calls.
5. The selection must
go off at 4-1 or higher.
If two or
more horses qualify under the rules at this point, separate them according to
the following point system:
a. Earned highest speed
rating last start: one point.
b. Started on latest
date: one point.
c. Faster winner’s time
in last start: one point.
d. Entered in highest
class most recent race: one point.
e. Finished closest up
in top race: one point.
contender with the highest number of points is the final selection.
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