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Jul 29, 2004

AMERICAN TURF CLUB LEAD

By: JOE GIRARDI


            This week’s lead is an interesting look at a scenario that comes around ever so often but when it

does you can really take advantage of it and there is a lot of money to be made. The scenario that we are talking

about is when there is rain that switches a race from the turf to the dirt. However, sometimes the main track on

days like this can be fast. This is exactly what happened on Sunday at Belmont Park, out of four turf races two

stayed on the turf and two came off the turf. The track was fast that day as the sun eventually came out and

started to dry out the surface. The race we are going to look at is the 9th race at Belmont On July 25th, 2004.

            The field of 16 horses only saw four scratches and was to be run over a fast track. This may have thrown

off some bettors especially ones playing at a simulcast facility. If you look at how the race was played you will

see why I believe a majority of the people bet the race like it was still on the turf. The morning line favorite in the

race was LADY DEANNA, she was made the morning favorite based on the race being on the turf. Since many

players are influenced by the morning lines LADY DEANNA may have taken some money based on that alone.

Out of her four races she had two on turf and two on dirt. Both turf races were very good with a 2nd and a 3rd. In

  those races she earned Beyer figures of 60 and 75 respectively. The reason I mention the Beyer figures is

because many people are influenced by the figures and tend to make the horse with the highest last race Beyer

the favorite. However, LADY DEANNA’s two dirt races were awful. She was beaten more than 25 lengths

in her first dirt start back in February and in her second dirt start she showed improved speed but was still

beaten almost ten lengths in a mile race that went in a pedestrian 1:41:1. It was obvious that she is a turf horse

and that she doesn’t have ability on the dirt, but for some strange reason she was by far the heavy favorite

in the DD’s, Pick 3’s, Pick 4’s and eventually they made her the favorite on the board sending her off at 2-1.

            As expected, on the dirt, LADY DEANNA ran poorly finishing 10th of 12 and one of the horses she

beat broke down. The winner of the race was INTER GALACTIC,  a 12-1 shot who had finished second two

back and most recently finished fifth at 7-2. She was adding Lasix for the first time and was stretching out to

a mile an obviously liked the dirt. The second place finisher was LITTLE MISS AMANDA, another who had

finished second on the dirt and was coming out of a key race. The third place finisher HURRICANE ERICA, was

another who had run exclusively on dirt and had a lot of early speed. The three horses combined for a $1,268

triple, the exacta paid $165 and the superfecta with the fourth place finisher paid $15,219.

            The point of this write-up is always get the changes for the day, especially when turf racing is involved.

On a day where the track is fast and the sun is out unless you follow that circuit everyday or live in that area

you may not know about the rain and the fact that the races are off the turf. Obviously the public didn’t know

that this race was on the dirt, they couldn’t have or there is no way that this horse would have been sent off

as the favorite. When playing off track always be on top of changes, make sure you know what surface the

race is on before stepping in. On the other hand when an opportunity like this arises, you should take

full advantage.

 



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