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Sep 27, 2013

AMERICAN TURF CLUB LEAD-PICK 5

By: JOE GIRARDI


               You have heard the statement, “It’s better to be lucky than good”. Well I guess that proves true every once in a while and when you’re playing the horses it comes true more often than not. The new pick five wager that started in New York on September 7th is a great wager to play with its 50 cent minimum bet, its lower takeout and solid pools. On Sunday September 22nd a friend of mine liked the pick five sequence as there was a horse he was waiting to run back that he could single. When playing the pick five having a single is a huge advantage and allows for more spreading in the other races.

               With the rain that hit the area the night before all the races were off the turf. In the first race, the first leg of the pick 5 sequence it looked like there was three horses that could win the race. The #1 Allie Sweet, a winner over the turf last out but was a solid fourth in her debut. She was bred to handle to the wet surface and Javier Castellano was up. The #5 Beverage Queen was making her first start for the Jason Servis barn and did have a decent dirt race back in May at Churchill Downs. The #9 Bozique was the third horse we were going to use, she has been in great form of late and handles all surfaces well. Javier Castellano got aggressive from the rail, set the pace to the top of the lane and drew away smartly to score by more than eight lengths paying $18.80.

               On to race 2, it was a five horse race with plenty of speed signed on. We used the 4-5-6. The #4 Belle Gallantey was coming off a solid second and is always right there but rarely wins but does have 12 seconds. However, she looked to get a great trip with the early speed in the race. The #5 Insolvent, is a speedy runner going out the first time for the David Jacobson barn and had won over the main track and handles a wet surface. The #6 Original Kitten was coming off a solid third place finish in an off the turf race at Saratoga and should work out a solid trip. The pace was sharp, Insolvent held that lead into the lane, was passed by the #2 but they were both passed by the perfect trip Belle Gallantey who won going away paying $7.10 to win.

               On to the third race, here is where is pays to better be lucky than good. A seven horse race with five solid contenders and a few with some questions marks. Because he had a single in the next race he decided not to throw out the other two horses and I used an all in the race. After trying to contest the pace up the inside down the backside, Cool Under Fire, had to take up, moved outside into the lane and ran down the leader to get up to score at 27-1 off the Bill Badgett claim. Now mind you, that barn has been in a terrible slump with only 2 wins from 93 starts this year and this horses was making a big move up in class coming out of a beaten claiming race into a tough NW1X optional claiming field. He paid $56 to win as the longest shot in the race and a huge help to the pick 5.

               In the fourth leg our single was Queen Nine. A three year old filly coming off a tough trip last out at Saratoga against a better field and looked to play out as the inside speed for the Chris Englehart barn that was off to a sharp start to this meeting. When the gates opened, Queen Nine came out running, set a clear lead to the top of the lane and drew away to a sharp score by seven lengths paying $7.20.

               We got to the final leg alive in the pick 5 with 4 out of the 8 horses. The 3-7-8-9. It was an off the turf race going seven furlongs and there looked to be some speed on paper. When Able Baker Charlie and Alex Solis started to move up the inside on the far turn off a contested pace I thought to myself we are going to hit it. He moved out into the lane and rolled on by the leaders to score by an easy three lengths paying $14. But more importantly the pick 5 paid $59,449 for 50 cents, that’s more than $230,000 for $2. The parlay on this wager for $2 was a little over $47,000 way less than the $230,000. After the withholdings it was almost $45,000 to the good. The total pick 5 play consisted of a 3x3x7x1x4=$126. It’s a great bet that offers a chance to make a huge score with not a huge investment.



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