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Aug 13, 2004

Straight talk about angles

By: Ray Talbout


It is next to impossible for an impatient player to become a success at turf

 speculation. This is due to the fact that so few races on the day's card offer

the investor a real opportunity to cash a wager. Most of the races carded every

day defy the skill of even the most experienced selectors. To put it bluntly, most races

are nothing more than guessing games.

Therefore, the individual who is unable to wait for suitable betting spots is doomed

 to the ranks

 of losers before they start. The old truism, "horses don't beat the players,

the players beat

themselves" contains more than just a grain of truth. Ninety percent of all chronic

 losers beat

themselves because they undertake the impossible.

We are aware that many fans do not have the time necessary for detailed, careful

 handicapping.

 But this lack of time is no reason why they should be doomed to failure, provided

 they have the

 patience to wait for certain races and certain types of selections.

From time to time over the past 40 years, we have pointed out in American Turf

Monthly that

 angle handicapping can be used to advantage by anyone who can read and understand

a past

 performance block. Some of our articles have been devoted to this type of analysis.

Over the

 years, we have discussed and explained more than 20 angles which can be employed

successfully

 for selecting good-priced winners.

We stress good prices because: 1) if you can beatthe price, you can beat the races

 and, 2) no

matter how proficient one may become in this endeavor, they will always select

more losers

than winners. Therefore, we cannot afford to back short-priced selections.

What is a good price? Certainly nothing less than 4-1, because it requires a price

 of this amount

to overcome the inevitable losers. This statement is based on the fact that if the

 winning

 percentage is no higher than 25 percent, one must receive an average of at

least 4-1 to

break even.

Breaking even is not profitable, of course, but it is better than losing continually.

Moreover, a good

 angle will produce winners with average prices much higher than 4-1.

Here, we wish to point out that no angle, no matter how good it may be, can keep

 the player in

the black if they insist on piddling away the angle profits on horses which do

not qualify.

In order to profit from the use of a good angle or two,one must be prepared to

wait for proper

selections and must not waste profits on horses which do not meet every stipulation

 of the

angle (or angles) they are using.

Further, one should never forget that the presence of a good angle in a horses" chart

does not

 necessarily make the horse a good wager. This is due to the fact that some horses

 are not

 really good racing or bettingtools.

How can one distinguish between a profitable horse and one that is unprofitable?

 Simply by

 observing its earnings record. Any horse today that can't average purse money of

$12,500

or more per year is not a horse that is truly a profitable racing tool. Like everything

 else, the

cost of shipping, feeding and caring for a race horse has almost doubled within the

past 10 years.

But equally important is the fact that horses which do not earn more than their bare

keep are

pretty poor competitors. And poor competitors are poor wagers. When one risks

their money

on the outcome of a race, they certainly should do it on horses which they know are

 profitable

 for their owners.

Racing fans who recognize this fact often assume that the number of times a horse

 has won

 as compared to its number of starts will separate the wheat from the chaff.

Unfortunately,

 this is not always true.

Purse amounts vary from track to track, and even from race to race. The point to

 remember

 is that the higher the class of the race, the greater the purse.

Our angle this month is based on four major factors:

1) The horse must have turned in a good race in its third race back, finishing

within two lengths

of the winner, in a race that was run no more than 50 days ago.

2) The winner's time for the angle horse"s last race must have been as fast as or

 faster than

the winner's time for the third raceback. Thus only horses which competed at the

same distance

in their third race back andlast race will be eligible for consideration.

3) The horse must have displayed early speed for at least a half mile last start, or

it must have

 closed ground from the pre-stretch call to the finish, finishing out of the money,

and this last

race must have been run within the past 21 days.

4) The horse must be the only qualified play in the race.

5) The horse should go off today at 4-1 ormore.

Don't Gamble was a perfect qualifier in the fifth race at Belmont Park on

September 3, 1995.

He won his third race back on July 26, within the 50-day time limit required by

Rule One. The winner"s

time for his top race was three-fifths of a second faster than his winning time in

his third race back and

both races were at the same seven-furlong distance (Rule Two).

Don't Gamble qualified on Rule Three by leading at the first two calls of his top

 race, 18 days ago.

 The colt was the only qualifier on Rules One through Three and he went off at 8-1

 today (Rule Five).

 His winning payoff was $18.40. Note that he was returning at the same seven-furlong

 distance today.

One question may arise for fans in future plays. What if a qualified horse is running

 today at a distance

that is not the same as the distance of the races on which it qualified? In such cases,

 we would only

 take the angle horse if it showed a win in its past performances at today's distance.

In closing, let us remind you of what we said about the importance of patience.

Without it one,

 has very little chance of winning consistently.You actually need only three or four

 good winners a

week to keep you way out in front, and you can get them if you'll wait for

 the right openings.



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