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Nov 27, 2013

NUMBERS ARE ONLY PART OF THE STORY

By: RAY TAULBOT


The Sprint Switch Angle: A Case Study


Of all the old bromides aboutracing, the one we like best is: "You can beat the races if you can beat the price." We would much rather have one winner in ten at $40 than to be a self-styled super-handicapper who picked 40 percent winners at anaverage $7 payoff. The difference in profit margin is just basic arithmetic. The catch is that the player must have the patience to wait for openings and the fortitude to swallow losses while waiting for the big winner.

In previous articles we haveexplained that racing angles can be roughly divided into two groups:

1. Performance angles; thatis, angles that deal exclusively with the manner in which a horse performs just prior to a winning effort.

2. Trainer angles, which, of course, have to do with the manner in which trainers tend to work in order toget a worthwhile price on horses that are fit and ready.

There are, of course, angles which comprise both of these general features, and it is one of these

combination"performance-trainer" angles with which we shall deal in this article under the heading

 of the "sprint switch" angle.

The turf reader should understand that doing a capable job of handicapping enhances the value ofany racing angle. This is true because angles are necessarily mechanical and horses are not machines.

 Secondly, all angles, like all factors in a race, are closely related to many other elements.

For example, a hard, over-taxing race of recent date could destroy the winning power of the very

strongest racing angle. Likewise,the class or current condition factor, or both, can strengthen or weaken the effectiveness of any angle. Thus, it is clear that the racing fan who is capable of evaluating a racing angle on the basis of the factors to which it is closely related, will derive better results than those who make only mechanical use of the same angle.

In a previous column, we dealt with a horse making the route switch in distance; this time we shall detail the sprint switch in distance. Before advancing any further,however, we want to repeat a portion of our other article because of itsdirect bearing on our discussion this month:

"A mistake commonly made bysome fans when considering the switch-in-distance angle has to do with the time factor. When the switch is from a sprint to a route, and then back to a sprint, the final time in which the route race is run has little meaning.We all know that the pace of a sprint race over a fast track usually results ina faster early pace than does a route race run under the same conditions."

Remember, the route race is for conditioning purposes, because the trainer has evidently decided that hissprinter needs more "legging up." Hence an easy distance race is inorder.

This brings us to that all-importantdate factor. Everyone who knows anything about racing surely

realizes that the more recently ahorse ran its last race the more likely it is to improve today, provided its last race was not a taxing effort that tended to dull, rather than sharpen, the horse’s current condition.

The date factors apply to cheap claimers. Higher-price claimers (entered for $25,000 or more) and

horses entered in allowances or other non-claiming events can qualify with more relaxed date rules.

We have found, however, that it doesn’t pay to back selections — especially cheap claimers — at less

 than 3–1.

Following are the angle rules:

1. The horse’s last race must havebeen a route run within 15 days for cheap claimers, 30 days for

high-price claimers andnon-claimers. It must be switching to a sprint today.

2. The horse’s next-to-last race must have been run within the past 30 days for cheap claimers, 50

days for high-price claimers and non-claimers.

3. In its next-to-last race, a sprint, the horse must have been leading or running within one length of the

leader at the stretch call and finished in the money.

4. The horse’s most recent race must have been an easy effort going a distance.

5. Prefer a horse that has turned in at least one sharp workout at a date later than its last race. If no workout since then is evident, demand at least 4–1.

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