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Dec 13, 2013

Don’t Be Afraid to Swing for the Fences

By: By Ray Taulbot


For more than a year, we tracked the effectiveness of an angle that was designed for the purpose of obtaining unusually high odds on horses which should rightfully be held at a nominal price.

During the long research period, we noted that now and then one of these angle horses would go postward at odds so far out of line with the horse’s actual chances of winning that one could afford to demand 20–1 or more and at the same time not limit the action too severely.

However, a more moderate price demand is more logical because any price above 5–1 can be said to be a good price, and odds of 10–1 most certainly place the horse in the longshot bracket.

So the odds demanded by the individual on these angle horses are largely a matter of how much action the handicapper desires. If he sticks to 20–1 he will, of course, find less action than the player who is satisfied with 10–1.

Since this angle is inherently a high-priced angle, one designed to get very substantial odds on a fit horse, the racing fan should never permit excessively high odds to scare him away from a qualified selection.

It has been said that the proof of the pudding is in the eating, and many of these angle horses won at odds of 25–1 or more. So if you have a faint heart where high odds are concerned, we suggest that you get a grip on your nerves and not permit excessively high odds to scare you off these angle horses.

You’ll find plenty of them within a year’s time that go to post at odds ranging from 10–1 up to 20–1, and when the occasional higher price crops up, it is best to forget odds and stick with the angle. With this final warning, let’s get down to an examination of the angle.

First, we should explain that this is a combination angle, including an out-of-the-money finish combined with a hike in class. The combination of these two moves by the trainer is almost certain to insure a price, despite the fact that the horse has successfully demonstrated its ability to handle today’s distance.

To begin with, the horse must have won a race within its last four starts over a distance within one furlong of today’s distance. Second, the horse must have run out of the money in its most recent race. Third — and most importantly — the distance today must be no more than one furlong shorter or longer than the distance over which the horse won within the past 90 days. Fourth, the horse’s top two races must have been run within the past 50 days, and the horse’s most recent race must have been run over the same track or circuit the horse is starting on today. Fifth, the horse must be moving up in class today.

When a horse meets all of these demands you have a contender that qualifies for play on this angle. Following are the selection rules consolidated to the point and order of practical use:

  1. The horse must have finished out of the money last time out in order to qualify.
  2. Its most recent race must have been run within 30 days.
  3. The horse must have won a race within its last four starts and within 90 days.
  4. The horse must be moving up in class.
  5. The horse’s last two races must have been run during the last 50 days.
  6. The distance of the winning race must be within one furlong of today’s distance.
  7. The horse’s most recent race must have been at the track or circuit where the horse is racing today.
  8. The horse must go off at odds of 10–1 or higher.

Despite having eight steps, the first three rules will eliminate most of the field.

In presenting this angle, we have set minimum odds of 10–1 but the player may use his judgment in this matter, depending on the amount of action desired. At 10–1 minimum odds, there is no need for a separation rule. If two horses qualify, you can well afford to play both at 10–1.

All points pertinent to the rules are shown. Remember to review them thoroughly until you are sure you have the angle firmly in place.

 



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