Dec 20, 2013
MONEY MANAGEMENT FUNDAMENTALS
By: RAY TAULBOT
We are keenly aware that
what one player considers a good winning percentage may not appear very
good to another player. Likewise, what one bettor considers good odds maybe
regarded by another bettor as something less than satisfactory.
In proposing the use of two
or more spot play methods for making selections, we have made an effort to
strike a middle ground between winning percentages and prices.
Some players prefer a high
winning percentage; others strongly favor high prices. Of one thing we may be
sure: it is next to impossible to maintain a high percentage of winners at what
are generally considered high prices.
Personally, we prefer a
compromise. That is, we favor a reasonably good winning percentage with profits
that range from moderate to substantial.
Perhaps we should define
more clearly what we mean by "moderate" and "substantial"
as these terms apply to mutuel prices. In our opinion, a price of3-1 is an
acceptable or moderate price.
We know that some
handicappers consider anything lower than 10-1 as less than satisfactory.
However, in this business we can’t have our cake and eat it too. Therefore, the
most logical procedure is to try for a reasonably good winning percentage and
good average prices.
usually have a set profit goal for the day, and when they attain that goal,
they call it a day and leave the track. The recreational player is advised to
adopt the same method of play. A logical procedure is to set a daily profit
goal of an amount commensurate with the amount of operating capital available
to the individual and then to stop play when the first cashing wager attains
the desired daily margin of profit.
It is foolish for a person
with, say, $100 to shoot for a daily profit of $50. If $100 is all that is
available for wagering, then his daily profit objective should be no more than
$15 a day. That is because he or she simply does not have sufficient operating
capital at their disposal to safely enable them to shoot for a higher daily
profit. In fact, they might be wise to select an even more moderate daily
profit objective if $100 is all they have available for wagering purposes.
If in this day of inflated
costs, $15 dollars profit a day seems too low, then the individual should wait
until more operating capital is available which will enable him to safely
attempt a greater amount of daily profit.
How should he manage his
playing capital in order to sustain the greatest possible margin of safety and
at the same time attain his profit objective? In our opinion, close attention
should be paid to the relationship between bankroll size, a contender’s odds
and the size of the target profit objective.
For example, suppose your
first selection for the day is going off at 3-1. If your daily profit objective
is $30 a day, you can arrive at the correct amount to wager at odds of 3-1 in
order to attain a net profit of $30 by dividing 30 by three. The answer is 10
and $10 is the logical amount to wager.
Or suppose your selection is
held at 5-1. Since your profit goal is $30, you arrive at the correct amount to
wager by dividing 30 by five. The answer is six and the wager is, therefore,
What does one do if the
first selection loses? The amount wagered on the loser becomes part of the
original profit goal. So if the daily profit objective was $30 and the lost
wager was $6, the profit goal becomes $36, the original $30 profit goal plus
the six dollars lost on the previous selection. The amount of the next wager
hinges upon the odd sat which your selection is held.
If the second selection was
held at 3-1, you arrive at the correct amount to wager by dividing 36 by three
and the wager is $12. On the other hand if this second selection was held at,
say, 6-1 then the wager would be only $6.
Many professionals back
their selections on the 1-3 scale win and place. For every dollar wagered to
win they bet three dollars to place. Remember, however, that if a player
chooses to use the win and place method of wagering, he must have available
four times the amount of capital he needs for win bets only.
If you employ the money
management plan explained above, remember that the one sure way to keep the
wagers within reasonable limits is to avoid excessively short-priced
selections. In our own play, we seldom back a horse at less than 3-1. This is
because in over 50 years of experience, we have learned that a short-priced
horse can lose just as easily as a good-priced selection. There is no such
thing as a sure thing in this business, so why take the worst of the
In making use of the
following method, the fan who is well grounded in sound handicapping principles
will produce better results than the player who knows little or nothing about
sound handicapping. Nevertheless, this method is designed so that it can be
The basic principle on which
this method is based is a race within the last two starts which offers good
evidence that the horse is now ready to turn in a good effort.
Any horse that gained three
or more running positions from the pre-stretch call to the finish, or which
turned in a front-running effort, is a horse worth following today. This is
especially true of horses that made such a gain or front running effort in
their next-to-last race, if it was run within the past 35 days.
Therefore, the first step in
making a selection is to find a claiming race (other than a maiden claiming
race) where a horse gained three or more running positions between the
pre-stretch call and the finish in its next-to-last race and lost by no more
than 3-1/2lengths — or in which the horse turned in a
front-running effort being defeated by no more than 3-1/2 lengths. Any horse
meeting this basic qualification becomes a selection if it meets all of the
1. The most recent race must have been
run within the past 21 days and the next-to-last race must have been run within
the past 35 days.
2. The horse must not be moving
up in claiming price today.
3. It must not have finished
in-the-money in its top race.
4. If the horse is not dropping
in claiming price today, the odds of its second race back must be higher
than the odds of its top race.
5. If the horse is dropping $10,000 or
more in claiming price today, Rule Four is disregarded, and the horse can
qualify if it meets all other requirements.
A. Eliminate any qualified horse whose
odds were more than 15-1 in both of its top two races.
B. Eliminate any qualified horse that
has not finished in-the-money or within 3-1/2 lengths of the winner in at least
one of its top three races.
If two or more horses
qualify in the same race, play the selection at the highest odds today.
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