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Feb 07, 2014

Double 14-Day Angle

By: By Ray Taulbot

This Taulbot article will try to help a growing number of readers that seem to have the same problem:  a scarcity of time in which to make their selections.

Most of our readers know that the use of angles in connection with sound handicapping methods is highly effective. But some readers state they simply don’t have the time to figure the races and would like a quick angle that is profitable.

There are several angles based largely on the condition factor, and they are profitable without having to figure the race in its entirety. However, such angles produce a limited amount of action because they generally make unusually rigid demands regarding current condition.

The angle outlined here will seldom produce more than four or five plays a week, so its use requires patience and restraint. This angle also nearly always produces selections at unusually attractive odds. In fact, we suggest that you back only those angle plays which go off at odds of 7–1 or more. This suggestion is based on the fact that a short-priced horse can lose just as easily as a long-priced one, but the short-priced winners contribute very little toward overcoming the losses that are inevitable in this game.

Our angle is called the “Double 14-Day Angle,” named as such because the horse’s previous two races must have been run within 14 days of each other, and its most recent race must have been within 14 days of today’s race. The angle is based on current condition, and the horse must have finished out-of-the-money in its last start, but in-the-money in both its next-to-last and third races back.

Last race         6          7          7          8

Next to last     2          2          2          3

Third back      5          4          3          2

We ignore the speed rating of the last race because we demand an out-of-the money finish in that race in the interest of price today. Any jockey worth his or her salt won’t continue to drive an animal to the finish when it’s only being given a conditioning race. If he’s five lengths out of it at the stretch, it doesn’t matter if he loses another five in the last eighth — but it will reflect on the speed rating.

Likewise, a horse that has maintained a level of sharpness, as shown in the speed ratings for its second and third races back, is not likely to lose it when it returns within 14 days of its most recent (out of the money) race.

In many instances, you will find evidence of stable intentions in the charts of these angle horses; some take healthy drops in claiming price, while others are hiked in class or claiming price today in order to fool the betting public and secure worthwhile odds.

When the two previous races were run at the same track and at the same distance, final times can be substituted for speed ratings, and the horse qualifies when its times do not vary by more than 3/5 of a second.

Final times for horses finishing second or third are obtained by adding 1/5 of a second to the winner’s time for each beaten length.

You should now understand why a lot of action won’t be found with this angle. But if you give it a lengthy check, you will discover that it is one angle that makes money without the work of handicapping the entire race.

You will seldom need to employ a separation rule, for rarely will you find two qualified horses in the same race. In the event two horses qualify, bet both if their respective odds are 7–1 or higher. Otherwise, go with the horse that had previously finished within one length of the winner in a race of higher class.

We suggest that you try out this effective angle on some more races.

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