Feb 28, 2014
Another Addition to Your OTB Arsenal
By: By Ray Taulbot
Many readers that wish to take
advantage of off-track betting and simulcasting have written to ATM asking for
a method which will enable them to make decent selections with the least
expenditure of time and effort. Accordingly, this month we are offering a
method we gave our readers not too many years ago because it is fast and gives
a great number of winners at nice prices.
As might be expected, the date of
the last race reveals itself as an important factor. In short, 15 days is the
most profitable date spread between a horse’s last race and today.
The reader may wonder: Why 15 days?
Why not seven, eight, 10 or 12 days? Fifteen days proves to be the optimum time
frame because it allows the trainer a one-week margin in which to find a
suitable race beyond eight days, which is generally accepted as the ideal rest
period following the last race.
When all tracks are considered,
regardless of their class, we find that the highest percentage of winners
consists of horses that started within eight days. This means that to take full
advantage of this feature, a trainer must find a race within that period where
his horse is eligible for entry. This is not always possible. Research reveals
that in a number of instances, a trainer often needs additional days in order
to find a suitable race. A careful examination of this situation shows that in
almost all cases, a suitable race is found within 15 days.
However, research also reveals that
if the date rule is extended beyond 15 days, the runs of consecutive losers
increase. Hence, it was decided that while the date limit of 15 days since
running the last race deprived us of a few winners that might otherwise have
been backed, the increased number of consecutive losses actually reduced the
margin of net profit over an extended period. So 15 days becomes our rule.
After extensive study, we found
that where separation is necessary, it was better to use a point credit
separation than it was to attempt to apply one rigid rule. We found that five
factors, each of equal value — namely, one point — produced better results than
could be obtained by using one hard and fast separation rule. These are:
Latest date last start;
Fastest time in which the winner ran the qualifying
Highest speed rating earned by the contenders;
Highest class last start;
Finished closest up in qualifying race.
When each of these factors was
given a value of one point, they proved successful in separating contenders.
Price proved troublesome in that a qualified
horse often went off at short odds. After experimenting with several ideas, it
was finally found the only possible way the player could be sure of obtaining 4–1
or more on his winning selections was to make a price demand part of the
qualification for play.
To meet the request for a non-time-consuming
method, we had to eliminate pace ratings entirely and depend upon the time in
which the winner ran each contender’s last race.
The final method, which follows, is
by no means the best way to make thoroughly sound selections. But it is the
best so-called “lunch hour” method developed to date. It is easy to use, it
points out a reasonable good percentage of winners at odds of 4–1 or more and
does avoid unreasonable runs of consecutive losers. Following are the selection
- Play no added money races and no turf races. All
other types may be played.
- First, eliminate all horses whose last race was run
more than 15 days ago and all horses that won their last race.
any nonmaiden that has not won in the two years shown in its consistency
- In order to qualify, a horse must have been leading —
that is, running first — at one of the first two calls in its last race,
it must have been within one length of the leader at the other of the
first two calls.
Consider the following examples:
Call Second Call
A) 1 3hd
B) 21 1
C) 1 1
- The selection must go off at odds of 4–1 or more.
If two or more horse qualify,
separate them according to the following points:
highest speed rating last start: one point;
- Last started on most recent date: one point;
- Fastest winner’s time in last start: one point;
- Entered in
highest class last start: one point;
- Finished closest up in last start: one point.
The contender with the highest
number of points is the final selection.
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