AMERICAN TURF LEAD-PICK SIX-PICK FIVE

By: JOE GIRARDI

               We have written in this spot many times about wagering when there are carryovers and how good of a bet the pick 5 is, with the 50 cent minimum, the low takeout and the large pools. There were two examples over the last week at Belmont where both of these instances came into play.

               On Sunday July 6^th there was a carryover into the pick six of $177,448. The pick six started in race 4 with a field of 10 that went postward. The #1 With Expression came out running for the lead and wired the field to score by a length as the 4-1 fourth choice. The second leg of the pick six was a $20k maiden claimer which went to #4 Giant Fox who was sent off as the 3-1 third choice in the race. The third leg of the pick six was a starter allowance race over the turf, Edie was sent off as the 7-5 favorite and she won her second race in a row paying $4.80 to win. The fourth leg of the pick six had a field of seven going postward and that race went to the fourth choice in the race when #4 Moe Man got the job done paying $13.20 to win. The last two legs of the pick six both had a pot-busting 10 horses in each race but the 8^th race went to the 2-1 favorite in Deep Speed. This runner was very impressive in winning his debut in the states back at the beginning of June and he battled gamely in this race coming back to score by a head. The last race was a maiden race over the turf at 1 and ¼ miles. The #8 Heyaarat, who finished third in his turf debut, stalked the leader early on racing in second, was hard ridden through the lane and got up to score by a half-length as the 8-5 favorite. The prices of all six horses were as follows: $10.80, $8.60, $4.80, $13.20, $6.20, and $5.40. The parlay on this six horses for $2 would have come to $6,157. However, because of the carryover of $177,448 the pick six paid $15,846, more than 2.5 times more than the parlay. It is always worth playing a bet when there is a carryover, especially a substantial one.

               On Wednesday July 9^th the pick five play at Belmont proved once again how this is the best wager at the track. In the first race there was a field of six with one horse going off as the 1-5 favorite and another as the 4-1 second choice. The #4 Roaring Conquest, the second choice in the race opened up into the lane and held on by a nose at 4-1 over the heavy favorite, a good start at 4-1 but beating a 1-5 shot in the first leg is huge. The second race was a field of eight horses going 1 and 1/16^th miles over the turf, NW2L $25k claimers. There was a heavy favorite in this race as well with #3 Toy Cannon going off as the 1-2 favorite. He couldn’t get the job done as well checking in second to the 23-1 longshot winner in Northern Tripp. The third race was a field of seven horses running for a claiming tag of $20k. The favorite in the race #7 Photon, a 6-1 shot in the morning line was bet down to the lukewarm favoritism at 5-2. He chased the pace from third and ground down the leaders to get up to score by ¾’s of a length. The early pick 3 paid $1,222, a great start to the pick 5. The fourth leg of the pick 5 was a $40k claimer for statebred maidens and there was a full field of 12 horses. The 6-5 favorite came out of the gate running from the start, she set the pace through solid fractions and never looked back scoring by four lengths. That was the second winning favorite of the sequence. The final leg of the pick 5 was a NW3L $14k claimer with nine horses going postward. A dropdown, #3 Mulheb closed well through the lane to get up and win by more than a length at 9-1. The prices of the pick 5 were as follows: $10.20, $49.40, $7.20, $4.40 and $20.80. The $2 parlay on these five horses would have been a hefty $20,751. However, with a pool over $200,000 and a low takeout the $2 pick five paid $34,253. That’s a great payoff based on the odds of the horses.

               It always pays to play the carryovers and the big pools with the low takeouts it gives you the biggest bang for your buck. Good luck at the windows!