American Turf Magazine
1-800-645-2240
View Cart
0 item, $0.00



Oct 29, 2004

Speed Ratings, Final Times and Current Condition

By: Ray Taulbot


We believe that there is no easier or better way to discover the true contenders

 in a race than by using pace handicapping. At the same time, however, we are

 the last to suggest that the logical investment is always the horse with the

 highest pace rating.

This is because the condition factor always governs the effectiveness of

handicapping figures; this is true no matter what kind of basic handicapping is employed.

Further, racing angles—which may reveal hidden condition—as well as those

angles which reveal the trainer's intentions enter the picture at this point. These

 angles combine to strengthen or weaken the true value of pace figures.

It is clear that merely learning the basic principles of pace handicapping is of

small value unless the selector has a sound knowledge of all types of racing

angles and a clear knowledge of what effect the horse's last race islikely to

 have on its performance today.

This month, we are going to deal with condition as expressed by a horse's time

 and its Daily Racing Form speed rating improvement. Readers of limited experience

 should use this method of assessing current condition only in those instances

where the horse being analyzed ran the same distance in its last two races.

The thoroughly experienced handicapper should encounter no trouble in applying

 the same method regardless of the distance factor. His knowledge of the relative

 time values for the various distances will enable him to use the method in nearly

 every race he figures.

Most of readers would agree than an improvement infinal time and an improvement

in a horse's Daily Racing Form speed rating, as it pertains to the last race, indicates

 improvement in physical condition.

For example, examine the two races below, which represent the horse's last two

 six-furlong races:

 

Time: 1:10 Horse"s speed rating: 90

Time: 1:11 Horse"s speed rating: 85

 

This broad example of improvement in the final time and speed rating shows

that the horse improved last start by about five lengths if we apply the standard

 adjustment of one length for every fifth of a second. If this horse was notused

excessively last start, it is likely to be exceptionally sharp today—provided

that the last race was comparatively recent.

If such a horse is one of the two, three, or four horses with the highest pace

ratings, it cannot be faulted on the condition factor. As such, its pace figures can

 be accepted at face value.

However, if the horse's last race was a hard-fought contest, are we safe in assuming

that it is a sharp contender today? Not unless there is evidence in its charts that its

 last race is not its best effort. We must make allowances for the probable effect of

its last race upon this horse's current condition.If the improved race took too much

 out of the horse, then it is not as sharp today as it was in its last race. It becomes

 strikingly clear, therefore, how important it is to judge accurately the probable effect

 of a horse's last race upon its current condition. This, admittedly, is not an easy

task. It requires a lot of straight thinking. For example, the effect of the two following

 races is likely to be radically different:

 

HORSE A: 31 21/2 21/2 2nk time: 1:10

HORSE B: 32 32 32 2nk time: 1:10.3

 

Horse A was in stiff contention from the quarter right down to the wire. He had a

 sustained effort over a distance of one-half mile in a race that was run in the

 final time of 1:10. Horse B, on the other hand, was in stiff competition only

during the final furlong. One horse was driving for a half mile, the other was

under excessive pressure for only 660 feet, and in a final time somewhat slower

than the other horse.

Horse A probably had much more taken out of him than did Horse B. Yet both

horses finished second by a neck. We can assume that, generally speaking, the

longer the excessive effort is sustained, the more it will take out of a horse.

Here the time factor must also be considered, for the rate of pace, as well as the

distance over which the effort is sustained, influences the horse's condition.

Generally speaking, if the horse was defeated by 2-1/2to three lengths or more,

it is not likely that he race took too much out of our prospect,not even when the

 pace was on the fast side. However, it is quite possible that a hard next-to-last

race, combined with a defeat of 2-1/2 lengths last start, could take a greatdeal

out of the average plater.

Some players make the mistaken assumption that if the horse led all the way the

race did not injure its current condition. This is not always true. For example, a

 horse might have led by only one-half length at every call. This narrow margin

 indicates that the horse was being hard-pressed throughout the race and,therefore,

 the contest took something out of it.

If you get nervous about eliminating higher ratings,you are missing the whole

point of this article. Horses are not automobiles and they cannot be rated on engine

 horsepower. A high rating without sharp present form is meaningless.



<< Back To Newsletter

123
Redeeming a gift certificate or promotional certificate? We'll ask for your claim code when it's time to pay.