Trainer Intent and Workout Patterns

By: Ray Taulbot

Many horseplayers are "workout conscious," that is, they watch for

and study the workouts

 with great care. When they find a horse that turnedin a work in fast time,

they are inclined to believe

 that they have found a horse that has a good chance to win today.

For example, if a bettor finds a horse that worked a half mile a few days ago

 in something like :47, or

one that was worked six furlongs in say, 1:12 and change, they believe that they

have found a

sharp horse.

Yet workout times can be deceptive. Many workouts were not made from a standing

 start, and in many

 instances the horse was galloping before it reached the point from which it was to

 be timed. As a

result, the horse had a running start before the actual time began.

When the workout was from the starting gate, the time factor has greater meaning,

because the horse

started from a standing start. Remember, though, that even workouts from the gate

 do not offer the

 handicapper accurate information regarding the actual condition of the horse.

No trainer in his right mind will ask for a horse"s best when working it out. To do

so would be to run

the danger of having the horse leave its best effort on the training track in the

morning. In short, a fast

workout can dull the edge of the horse's condition to such an extent that it will have

 nothing left for an

 actual race during the next few days. So the use of workout times in making

 selections may become

a dangerous practice.

In our opinion, it is when the workouts took place that is really important to the

 handicapper. You must

remember, too, that the date of the workout is closely related to the date of the

 horse's last race. This

 relationship cannot safely be ignored because it is the horse's recent races and

workouts which form

its overall training pattern.

 

There are few claiming horses that can be brought up to winning form through

workouts alone. Cheaper

 horses have to be raced into condition. There are a few exceptions, but you won't

 find many of them

 in a racing season.

Since the majority of horses in competition must be raced into condition, it follows

 logically that about

 one third of the races the average claimer runs are actually workouts under actual

 racing conditions; that

is, about a third of their starts are conditioning races in which the horse is not

expected to win or even

 finish in the money.

No informed racing fan would argue against the statement that an actual race

 contributes more to

conditioning a horse than a workout.

If it not difficult to understand why this is so. Thoroughbreds have been bred to race,

 and if the horse

 is healthy and sound, it enjoys racing in competition with other Thoroughbreds.

A horse soon learns the difference between a morning workout and an actual race,

and most of them

 do not enjoy their morning workouts simply because in most instances they are

 running against a

stopwatch instead of competing against other horses.

It is for this reason that a trainer will sometimes work some of his horses in pairs,

or even in threes. He

 may resort to this simply because some of his horses refuse to extend themselves

 satisfactorily when

 running alone.

From what has been said, it should be clear that a "workout race" offers much better

evidence of a

horse"s true condition than does its morning workouts.

If this is true, why do trainers bother with morning workouts at all? Because workouts

 serve two major

 purposes: 1) They contribute toward keeping a sharp horse on edge; and 2) horses

need exercise in

order to maintain good health. A trainer can't afford to let his horse stand in its stall

for days between

 races. Such a procedure would produce very poor results insofar as the horse's health

 and physical

 condition are concerned.

Our experience has taught us that very few racing fans ever view a horse's last race

 as representing a

 workout. Yet any trainer will tell you that every race a horse runs either contributes

to its condition,

or dulls its current condition to some degree because the race was an over-taxing

 effort.

That brings us to the relationship which exists between a horse's races and its

 workouts. First, two

 recent races and a couple of workouts comprise good evidence of soundness.

Soundness is of the

greatest importance to the handicapper, because unsound horses are not consistent

 performers.

There are two race and workout patterns that have great meaning. First there is the

 workout that took

 place not more than three days prior to the horse's last race. If the horse turned in

 a good effort

and is re-entered with 28 days or so, it may not need a workout after its last race in

 order to retain its

 sharp condition.

The other race-workout pattern is found when a horse had a workout some days

prior to its last race

 and has been given another workout after the last race.

Many of the horses that win each week fit into one of these two race-workout

patterns. However, a

satisfactory race-workout pattern is not alone sufficient to guarantee sharp condition.

 It is evidence of

 soundness, but unless the last conditioning race reveals sharpness, it is risky to back

 the horse merely

because the evidence indicates soundness.

The key to the condition factor is found in the time in which the horse's last race

 was run, as compared

 to the time of its previous race. If the horse's last race resulted in a final time for

the winner that was

 faster than the winner's time in the next-to-last race, and if the horse earned a

speed rating as high as

 or higher than the speed rating for its next-to-last race, you may be sure that the

horse is sharp, despite

 what its beaten lengths seem to indicate.

How good a wager are these horses with evidence of soundness and sharp condition?

Do they win a

 high percentage of their races? How solid a wager the horse may be depends

largely upon two

 factors: 1) Its pace ability as compared to the pace ability of other sharp horses

 in the field; and 2) The

 trainer"s intentions today.

What about the distance factor? What should a bettor do if the horse is a sprinter

and is entered in

a route race today, or vice-versa? There is only one logical answer to this question

 and that is leave

 the distance factor to the trainer. There is no escaping the fact that the trainer

 knows more about

 what distance is best for his horse at the moment than do we selectors.

It costs time and money to bring a horse up to winning form, and the trainer is

a business man. Only

a greenhorn would misplace a sharp horse as to distance. You also may be sure

that if you try to

outguess the trainer in this matter, you will come up holding the short end of the

 stick more often

than not.

If there is evidence that the horse is sharp, and evidence that the trainer is going

 to shoot for the

win, our best advice is to leave the distance factor entirely to the trainer's judgment.

Here is the preliminary part of this trainer-workout angle:

 

1. Consider only horses which have raced within the past 28 days.

2. In its most recent race, the horse must show some semblance of a return to

form. It can be either

 early speed at the first call, a gain of four or more lengths from the first call to

the stretch call or a

 gain of four or more lengths from the pre-stretch call to the finish.

3. The horse must be running in the same class as or lower class than its last race.

4. The horse must have had a blowout within three days of today's race. A "blowout"

can be

considered to be a work of three or four furlongs. Time is not important.

5. Where two or more horses qualify, play the horse going off at the highest

odds today.

 

Those players who wait for these trainer-workout angle plays, plus some additional

points to

strengthen them, should get enough hard-hitting, live action to satisfy them.