Nov 21, 2014
AMERICAN TURF CLUB LEAD-PICK FIVE WAGER
By: JOE GIRARDI
five wager has really become the bet to make in New York. There have been some
very large payouts on some very hittable tickets. We are going to take a look
at this past weekend at Aqueduct, November 16th. The pick 5 starts
in race 1 and runs through race 5 there is only a 15% takeout.
on Sunday November 16th, in the first race there was a field of six
two year old fillies with Ring Knocker going off as the odds-on favorite with
two solid second place finishes and then a decent sixth in the Grade I
Frizette. She was turning back into a sprint race and dropping back into a
maiden race. The second choice in the race was the 5-2 first time starter from
the Kiaran McLaughlin barn, a horse purchased at the two year old in training sale
back in May. When attacking the pick 5 I wanted to use both of those horses
plus the #2 MOMAMEAMARIA, a two year old filly by Quality Road who ran a better
than looked fifth in her debut with plenty of trouble in the race and she was
getting a rider switch to Joel Rosario. Rosario wins at 27% for the David
Cannizzo barn and this looked live runner. I used 1-2-5 in the first leg of the
pick 5. With a clean break, MOMAMEAMARIA was sent right to the lead, battled
with the favorite and drew away for an easy win paying a solid $27.40 to win.
second race was the Key Cents stakes, a race for two year filly New York breds.
The race looked like a wide open event despite only six horses going postward.
On paper it looked like everyone had a shot except the 6 Dunn Listening who was
sent off as a 33-1 outsider. My Super Nova was sent off as the odds-on choice
but she was just coming off a maiden win by a head the prior start. When the
gates opened, The Lewis Dinner, second choice in the race at 7-2 was sent to the
lead and led throughout scoring by almost three lengths. Sandra who chased from
second all the way held on to the place spot with My Super Nova barely getting
out of a gallop early checking in fifth late. Used 1 through 5 in that race.
third race, a turf race for allowance optional claiming race going one mile.
The slight favorite in the race was Ironicus, who finished third off a layoff
last out and should be tighter this time around. On paper it looked like there
were 4 horses to use, 4-5-6-9. The 4 looked liked the main speed, the 5 should
be better this time around, the 6 was a big winner in his debut but failed as
the favorite last out but could bounce back and the 9 was a big maiden winner
last out. Despite getting a wide trip, Sycamore Lane, took over the lead into
the lane and then dug in to hold on to the win by a nose at 6-1 over Ironicus.
The early pick three paid a healthy $1,105.
fourth race, a $40k maiden claimer for New York breds run over six and a half
furlongs. We used five horses in the race, 2-3-7-9-10. The favorite in the
race, #7, Harlans Six, who finished second last out got a good trip and closed
ground beating a few horses that were also in this race. However, to take 8-5
might have been a tough proposition. There was an early duel early on, both of
those horses tired and were overtaken by Justice Served, #10, and she drew away
to score by almost six lengths. The favorite didn’t run at all checking in an
even sixth and the #10 paid $10.60 to win.
fifth race was a NW2L $20k claiming race run over the turf. Toy Cannon, who has
a record of 1 for 18 but has been close many times versus better, he received a
tough trip last out when checking in fourth. However, if he runs back to some
of his better races he cannot lose to this field. Hustled along early by Irad
Ortiz Jr, Toy Cannon got a good spot early on behind the leaders. He moved
outside down the backstretch and was up to challenge the leaders around the
turn and into the lane. Taking over from the frontrunners Toy Cannon started to
draw away to score by more than fourth lengths as the 7-2 thrid choice. The
parlay on all five horses would have returned $25,188, however with the low
takeout and solid pool of over $231,000 the pick 5 returned $56,187 for a $2
bet. A little over $28,000 for a $1 and just over $14,000 for 50 cents. The
pick 5 play cost $150 for a 50 cent increment and would have been a very nice
head into winter and the field size will probably go down you still have a
major chance to make a score with a small risk and the pick five is the bet to
make, especially at major tracks. Good luck!
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