Nov 15, 2004
Half the Race is Out of Your Control (Part 10)
By: Joe Takach
How many times have we all seen unexpected “betdowns”?
I rarely agree with the morning lines created by a track’s morning line maker on any specific runner, but more than disagreement I’m speaking to dramatic differences.
As mentioned in Part 4 of this series and to refresh your memory, you must keep in mind that morning lines are created by track employees that are paid by the track. Their real job is not to create an honest morning line, but rather to create as much doubt as possible! In doing so, their daily manufactured malpractice ensures that Joe Six-Pack will purchase more win tickets, more daily double tickets, more exacta and trifecta tickets and more Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5 and Pick 6 tickets etc. This overbuying of tickets and “savers” obviously increases daily track handle, which in turn increases daily racetrack profit.
It would never be in any racetrack’s best interest to employ an outside independent Ralph Nadar-like organization whose morning lines would be honest and more realistic. Most racetrack management (an oxymoron if there ever was one), looks upon their patrons as worthless degenerates that deserve absolutely nothing let alone honesty. If Joe Six-Pack is dumb enough to gamble on horses, he should be separated from his money as quickly as possible. If you need proof of this, just look at the outrageous food prices or the $5 charged for the privilege of parking on their racetrack property to go into their establishment to wager on horses to put money in their pockets.
Sorry for the sidebar, but after 40 years of supporting their game, I’m just tired of always being treated like a piece of crap!
Getting back to our subject matter, slight variations in the opinion about odds are the “norm” for any given race. If a horse is offered a morning line of 3-1 and actually goes off at 5-2 or 2-1 on the low end, or 7-2 or 4-1 on the high end, no eyebrows are raised.
But what about when a 12-1 morning line horse opens up at 3-1 in the betting and remains there right up to the closing bell?
What causes this dramatic drop in odds?
The first thing that you inevitably hear whether on track or at a satellite facility is that “they” are hammering the 3 horse. Or, “they” must know something!
I’d just love to know exactly who are the “they” that seems to be on every conspirator’s lips?
Whenever the betting opens on a new field, it doesn’t take much money to take a 12-1 morning line runner down to 3-1.
Who is dumping this early money?
How about the egotistical owner?
How about a bookie merely “laying off” money because he feels he took too much action on a specific runner?
How about a big time gambler who knows that if he can create a false betdown scenario early on in the betting by placing $2,000 on a no-legged 15-1 pig at the opening bell, many conspiratorial morons will throw their money away by following the bogus lead?
Once the stupid sheep follow suit, all the big time gambler has to do is cancel his initial fake bet with 2 minutes to post and place that same money on the horse that he really liked in that race. By this time the odds on his real selection are favorably inflated to his advantage while the certified loser’s odds are equally deflated!
This scenario could easily be accomplished by buying twenty $100 win tickets via an automated teller and resubmitting them into the automated teller and canceling them when ready to complete the coup. Additionally, think about all the wasted “exotic” money (exactas, trifectas, rolling doubles, etc.) thrown after this “ghost” horse who had virtually no chance of winning.
Whenever you see early money on a questionable runner, you’d be well advised to consider this either “dumb” money or “bogus” money.
Very rarely is it “smart money”! Smart money usually gets placed into the mutual pool with 2 or less minutes to post. After all, the “smart money” wouldn’t be all that “smart” if they tipped their hand with 25 minutes to post and deflated their own odds!
Are you guilty of following these “blind” leads?
If so, those responsible for creating these false scenarios are actually changing your thinking and perhaps putting some of the race literally out of your control!
Think about it!
(Continued in PART 11 of HALF THE RACE IS OUT OF YOUR CONTROL)
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