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Nov 15, 2004

Outsmarting the Public

By: Ray Taulbot


Regular readers of this publication are aware of pace handicapping, and it is not

 uncommon for us to

 receive many letters each month asking questions about the pace factor.

Many readers misunderstand the basic principle of pace handicapping, and believe

 that the horse with

 the highest pace rating should win a high percentage of the races run each day.

 But such an assumption

is based on careless thinking, or upon a lack of experience in the use of pace.

Pace ability is used merely for the purpose of discovering thepace contention in

a given race. Why is this

 discovery important? Because it is paceability that makes or breaks a race horse.

 But pace ability is based

 on class and current condition, and the horse with the best pace rating might be

 outclassed today.

For instance, the horse with the highest pace figures earned its figures in a $3,000

 claiming race. If this horse

 is entered today in competition with$4,000 and $4,500 platers, which have slightly

 lower pace figures than the

 $3,000 horse,the cheaper animal may encounter a class handicap which sends it

down to defeat-despite its

higher pace figures.

Or the horse with the highest pace figures might be lacking incurrent condition. The

horse may not have

 reached the upward swing of its current formcycle, or it may have reached its peak

 and is now on a downward

 curve. A horse coming offa very hard race in fast time often falls into this category.

Therefore, it is clear that the horse with the highest pacefigures won"t always be

 the logical selection. Perhaps

 the horse with the second highest figures-or even the horse with the third or fourth

 highest figures-may

 be a sounder selection today. In racing, there is no completely isolated factor in

handicapping. Every factor is

 related to one another.

It is also easy to slip into the habit of using only final timeas a means of figuring

 pace. While it is true

 that final time represents the overall pace picture, it is not true that final time

alone is always sufficient

when determining the actual pace ability of a horse.

For example, one might have two horses of the $5,000 grade whosemost recent races

 were run in identical

final times. If the final time figures are usedalone, these horses might have identical

 figures. But when

 the "highlight time"method is used, the picture may take on a different hue. Examine

 the two following races:

(A) 6f $5,000

32 35 23 22-1/2 SR-90

:45.1 1:10.3

(B) 6f $5,000

11 11/2 22-1/2 22 SR-90

:22.1 :46 1:10.3

Since both of these races were run in identical time, both horses were defeated by

 the same number of lengths

 and earned a speed rating of 90, both horses will receive identical pace ratings if

only final time and

speed ratings are employed.

But when you include the "highlight time," thehalf-mile time in a sprint or the six-furlong

 time in a

 route, we might arrive at anentirely different picture. In the above example, both

 animals received

 a parallel pacerating of 391 plus 90, or a final rating of 481. But when we include

the highlight

time rating, the final result reveals that A has more early pace ability than B. Examine

the following figures:

(A) 391 plus 394 plus 90…total 875

(B) 391 plus 390 plus 90…total 871

These are the ratings you will get from your Pace Calculatorwhen using the

 "highlight time" method. So

where we had an identical time when using only the final time and speed rating, we

now have A with a

four point advantage whenwe include the highlight time.

Since both animals earned their figures in a $5,000 race, andsince they are assumed

 to be about equal

 on the condition factor, A"s four point edge onearly pace becomes of real importance.

On the other

 hand, if A was outclassed or lackingin condition, the four point edge would lose

most-if not all-its

 significance.

There is another important factor to consider in the above example. The early pace of

A"s race was faster

 than the early pace of B"s race, and A gained ground after passing the half-mile pole.

 On a slower

 early pace, B lost groundafter reaching the half-mile pole. When one horse gains, and

 the other loses

ground,preference should usually be given to the gainer.

Let"s take horse B and enter it in today"s route race. Many players would pass this

animal in a route

because it quit or weakened in a sprint heat.The average player would argue that if

the horse dropped

 back in the sprint, there is no reason to assume it will improve at a longer distance.

This is poor

 reasoning. If B isentered today in a route-where the average half-mile pace is

something like :46.4

 orslower-this horse has a mighty good chance, if the class and condition are there.

When a sprinter moves into a route, it is moving into a race where the early pace will

nearly always be

slower than the early pace of a sprint heat.Therefore, a sprinter with a good half-mile

 time has an

advantage over the routers with slower half-mile times. The slower early pace might

give the

sprinter just what it needsto score.

A study of past performance records will soon convince you that this is true. You can

find many

examples where a sprinter quit or weakened on a fast early pace in a sprint race, and

then came right

 back to whip horses of the same class in aroute race. This is one of the best longshot

 angles in

 racing because the public seldom gives the sprinter support when going in a route.

So far we have pointed out two pace angles: a gaining horse in asprint where the early

 pace was

 fast; and a sprinter with a fast early pace in a sprint that is entered against its own

class in a route.

 Both of these angles will produce some nice-priced winners.

But there is a third angle you should consider. It also involves pace, and can be used

in both sprints

and routes. Note how A ran his last race as shown.The horse was within two lengths

of the leader at

the first call, and then dropped back some three lengths by the time the field reached

 the half-mile

pole. Then the horse began to gain ground, picking up two lengths between the

half-mile pole and the

stretch call,and another half-length between the stretch call and the wire.

This horse had two very strong pace angles: gaining ground off a fast early pace; and

dropping back

 after the first call to come again after passing the half-mile call. It takes a pretty fair

animal to drop

 back off a fast early pace and thencome again to make up lengths down to the wire.

This "drop back and come again" angle is not new. Butit becomes a new and more

 powerful angle

 when the pace factor is considered. The fact thata horse drops back and comes again

 is not overly

 important unless the early pace showsthat it did this under fast early pace conditions.

 This is another

 reason why handicappers can"t limit himself to final times.

That is also why "highlight times" were included when the Pace Calculator was

designed. Those of you

with the instrument should not neglect theuse of highlight time ratings if you want

 accuracy.

A point worth remembering is that the return one receives forhis labors is based

upon his ability and

his willingness to work. The lazy racing fan can"t succeed. You can be sure that the

more you put

into this business, the more you will earn.



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