Nov 15, 2004
Outsmarting the Public
By: Ray Taulbot
Regular readers of this publication are aware of pace handicapping, and it is not
uncommon for us to
receive many letters each month asking questions about the pace factor.
Many readers misunderstand the basic principle of pace handicapping, and believe
that the horse with
the highest pace rating should win a high percentage of the races run each day.
But such an assumption
is based on careless thinking, or upon a lack of experience in the use of pace.
Pace ability is used merely for the purpose of discovering thepace contention in
a given race. Why is this
discovery important? Because it is paceability that makes or breaks a race horse.
But pace ability is based
on class and current condition, and the horse with the best pace rating might be
For instance, the horse with the highest pace figures earned its figures in a $3,000
claiming race. If this horse
is entered today in competition with$4,000 and $4,500 platers, which have slightly
lower pace figures than the
$3,000 horse,the cheaper animal may encounter a class handicap which sends it
down to defeat-despite its
higher pace figures.
Or the horse with the highest pace figures might be lacking incurrent condition. The
horse may not have
reached the upward swing of its current formcycle, or it may have reached its peak
and is now on a downward
curve. A horse coming offa very hard race in fast time often falls into this category.
Therefore, it is clear that the horse with the highest pacefigures won"t always be
the logical selection. Perhaps
the horse with the second highest figures-or even the horse with the third or fourth
be a sounder selection today. In racing, there is no completely isolated factor in
handicapping. Every factor is
related to one another.
It is also easy to slip into the habit of using only final timeas a means of figuring
pace. While it is true
that final time represents the overall pace picture, it is not true that final time
alone is always sufficient
when determining the actual pace ability of a horse.
For example, one might have two horses of the $5,000 grade whosemost recent races
were run in identical
final times. If the final time figures are usedalone, these horses might have identical
figures. But when
the "highlight time"method is used, the picture may take on a different hue. Examine
the two following races:
(A) 6f $5,000
32 35 23 22-1/2 SR-90
(B) 6f $5,000
11 11/2 22-1/2 22 SR-90
:22.1 :46 1:10.3
Since both of these races were run in identical time, both horses were defeated by
the same number of lengths
and earned a speed rating of 90, both horses will receive identical pace ratings if
only final time and
speed ratings are employed.
But when you include the "highlight time," thehalf-mile time in a sprint or the six-furlong
time in a
route, we might arrive at anentirely different picture. In the above example, both
a parallel pacerating of 391 plus 90, or a final rating of 481. But when we include
time rating, the final result reveals that A has more early pace ability than B. Examine
the following figures:
(A) 391 plus 394 plus 90…total 875
(B) 391 plus 390 plus 90…total 871
These are the ratings you will get from your Pace Calculatorwhen using the
"highlight time" method. So
where we had an identical time when using only the final time and speed rating, we
now have A with a
four point advantage whenwe include the highlight time.
Since both animals earned their figures in a $5,000 race, andsince they are assumed
to be about equal
on the condition factor, A"s four point edge onearly pace becomes of real importance.
On the other
hand, if A was outclassed or lackingin condition, the four point edge would lose
most-if not all-its
There is another important factor to consider in the above example. The early pace of
A"s race was faster
than the early pace of B"s race, and A gained ground after passing the half-mile pole.
On a slower
early pace, B lost groundafter reaching the half-mile pole. When one horse gains, and
the other loses
ground,preference should usually be given to the gainer.
Let"s take horse B and enter it in today"s route race. Many players would pass this
animal in a route
because it quit or weakened in a sprint heat.The average player would argue that if
the horse dropped
back in the sprint, there is no reason to assume it will improve at a longer distance.
This is poor
reasoning. If B isentered today in a route-where the average half-mile pace is
something like :46.4
orslower-this horse has a mighty good chance, if the class and condition are there.
When a sprinter moves into a route, it is moving into a race where the early pace will
nearly always be
slower than the early pace of a sprint heat.Therefore, a sprinter with a good half-mile
time has an
advantage over the routers with slower half-mile times. The slower early pace might
sprinter just what it needsto score.
A study of past performance records will soon convince you that this is true. You can
examples where a sprinter quit or weakened on a fast early pace in a sprint race, and
then came right
back to whip horses of the same class in aroute race. This is one of the best longshot
racing because the public seldom gives the sprinter support when going in a route.
So far we have pointed out two pace angles: a gaining horse in asprint where the early
fast; and a sprinter with a fast early pace in a sprint that is entered against its own
class in a route.
Both of these angles will produce some nice-priced winners.
But there is a third angle you should consider. It also involves pace, and can be used
in both sprints
and routes. Note how A ran his last race as shown.The horse was within two lengths
of the leader at
the first call, and then dropped back some three lengths by the time the field reached
pole. Then the horse began to gain ground, picking up two lengths between the
half-mile pole and the
stretch call,and another half-length between the stretch call and the wire.
This horse had two very strong pace angles: gaining ground off a fast early pace; and
after the first call to come again after passing the half-mile call. It takes a pretty fair
animal to drop
back off a fast early pace and thencome again to make up lengths down to the wire.
This "drop back and come again" angle is not new. Butit becomes a new and more
when the pace factor is considered. The fact thata horse drops back and comes again
is not overly
important unless the early pace showsthat it did this under fast early pace conditions.
This is another
reason why handicappers can"t limit himself to final times.
That is also why "highlight times" were included when the Pace Calculator was
designed. Those of you
with the instrument should not neglect theuse of highlight time ratings if you want
A point worth remembering is that the return one receives forhis labors is based
upon his ability and
his willingness to work. The lazy racing fan can"t succeed. You can be sure that the
more you put
into this business, the more you will earn.
<< Back To Newsletter