Jun 26, 2015
AMERICAN TURF CLUB LEAD-UPSET WINNERS
Thefollowing is an informative lead that can help you spot some upset winners byfollowing some outlined rules. Good Luck!
There’s nothrill quite like hitting one of those “upset” winners…especially if you happento have it hooked up in an exotic-betting ticket that pays off. Spotting the“upsetters” is the key to hitting these big payoffs, especially the exactas,triples, superfectas or multi-race exotics because then your “upsetter” can runsecond and still be an important part of the ticket. So let’s examine a few ofthe ways your past performance paper can key you in on an “upset” winner.
The average bettor at the track — or elsewhere — favorshorses that have “hot form” …that is, finished in-the-money in its last fewraces, at least its last race. These are the horses that draw the heavy play inthe exactas, quinellas, triple betting pools, multi-race exotics and of coursethey’re the ones you’ll be trying to knock down with your “upset” horse.
Since it’s a fact of racing life that many races are won byhorses that finished out-of-the-money last time out, and many of these alsofinished out of the dough in their previous two or three races also…then theplace to look for the “upsetter” is among these horses. But it is also quiteobvious that you need a special method of telling which ones are “liveprospects” for a wakeup, and which ones just plain have the losing habit. Theidea is to spot a “bad form” horse that is ready to break out of its slump witha strong effort.
The thing to keep in mind is that a racehorse is not acomputerized apparatus that can be programmed to win; it cannot come back raceafter race and run well every time. We are all subject to periodic slumps, andcertainly the race horse is no exception.
It is equally true that no one can say when a streak willend and a slump begin—or vice versa. The race horse can only keep on going tothe post and running in races until he gets out of the doldrums, and back inwinning form.
The only exceptions to this are lightly-raced horses. Stakesand handicap horses often run up long strings of good efforts but you’ll findin nearly every instance that their races are spaced at least three weeks apartand usually longer. The ones that race more often than that, rarely run upextended strings of good efforts. For this reason, it’s a rare claiming platerthat can finish close up in race after race for a couple of months.
The trick is to tell when a horse is ready to snap out ofits slump and suddenly run a good race. It’s a mighty good trick, and it involvessome guess-work, but I have a couple of suggestions that might help you uncovera few of these winners and cash in at healthy odds.
Did the horse make any kind of a stretch gain in its mostrecent out-of-money race? (I’m assuming that you are looking at the pastperformance record of a horse that has been out of the money in its last threeraces). If in its most recent start it showed some signs of life by passing atleast one horse in the stretch run, or gaining at least two lengths of ground,then it may be ready to come to life today. Usually these gains go unnoticedbecause the horse was out of the money in all recent starts, and the result isan outlandish price if the horse does come to life.
Of course, if it’s a maiden or a horse that seldom wins orfinishes in the money, forget it. But if it shows a few winning races in itsrecord, or was in the money in at least 25% of its starts, it’s a likely“waker-upper.”
Another tip that a horse is ready for a wake-up can be foundin the jockey assignment. Jockey agents don’t go around looking for bad mountsfor good riders. When a good rider—one of the leaders at the meeting takes themount on a horse that has been out of the money in recent races, you may besure it is expected to run an improved race.
One more hint of a “wakeup” may be found in a distanceswitch. If the horse has been running in sprints, and suddenly is dropped intoa race at more than a mile, this may be the tip that it is ready to come tolife. Or, vice versa — if it has been going distances and starts in a sprint,the wakeup day may be at hand.
These are three good angles for spotting these“come-to-lifers,” but as you go along, hunting for them, you may come acrossothers. One thing you must remember — don’t try to make the horse on soundhandicapping principles. If it has shown, at any time in its past performances,that it can beat today’s company, then you’re just taking a chance that it willsuddenly come alive and do the trick.
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