AMERICAN TURF CLUB LEAD-PICK 5 BELMONT FROM 6-28-15

By: JOE GIRARDI

               We write about our wagers in this spot many times and it usually is a pick five or pick six that pays large numbers. However, we are all about value and sometimes that doesn’t come in the form of a five figure payout, sometimes value can come in the form of a three figure payout. Sunday June 28^th at Belmont was one of those times. With races run over a sloppy/sealed surface and all the races rained off the turf we took a look at the early pick five and knew that despite some very low priced horses there would be some value to be had.

               The first race was a maiden special weight race  for fillies and mares three years old and upward with a field of six going postward. I’ll Take Charge, the 1-2 morning line favorite who was a trouble, fast closing second in her debut, was adding lasix for the first time and looked like a layover on paper. Out of the sire Indian Charlie, out of the champion mare Take Charge Lady, this three year old filly was made out to be a serious racehorse and her 2-5 odds were warranted for sure. So she was going to be a single on all my pick 5 tickets. After getting away in third from the rail, she moved outside and rolled by for an easy win by more than three lengths paying $2.80. Nothing special but we singled her and we move along to the second leg.

               The second race was a NW2L $40k claimer run over 1 and 1/16^th miles, a race that came off the turf. There was a six horse field that went postward with Stevie’s Moonshot going off as the 2-1 favorite despite only racing over the turf and having many breaks in between his two previous races. We used the 5-8-10. The 5, Againsome, a main track only who if he ran his best race was clearly the best horse in the race. However, he was off since April so we used the 8, a longshot who was also a main track only and the 10 who had shown some solid races in the past. The 8 and 10 battled on the lead, with the 5-11 stalking the pace. As they moved into the lane, the 11 took over but couldn’t hold off the late run of the 5 Againsome who went on for the win paying $7.30 to win.

               Moving on to the third race, $100k Dancin Renee stakes for fillies and mares, three year olds and upward foaled in New York state. There was a field of seven that went postward with La Verdad, a multiple graded stakes winner against open company was going off as the 1-9 favorite. When the gates opened she came out running for the lead, held a clear lead and drew clear to win by more than seven lengths paying $2.20 to win. Another extremely low priced winner but another single in the pick 5.

               Moving on to the fourth leg, another off the turf event for two year olds run for maiden special weight conditions. There was a field of seven that went postward and we used two horses in the race, the 5 and 11, both horses were bet down to 2-1 for their debuts with the 5 going off as the slight favorite at 2.20-1. The 11 who was sent off at 2.25-1 was entered for main track only and was purchased for $110,000 at a two year old in training sale back in April out of a sire that only stands for $3,000. More than 30 times the amount of the stud fee. The 11 came out running, pressed the leader, took over after a ¼ mile and went on to score by more than four lengths paying $6.50 to win.

               Moving on to the fifth and final leg, a $16k claimer for three year olds and upward had a field of seven that went postward. We used 2-3-5-6. When the gates opened, the 3 Your Move came out running for the lead, set a clear lead from the start and into the lane but couldn’t hold off the 2 who closed well to score going away by more than two lengths. The 2, Time For Angie shipped in from Santa Anita and got a good spot early on behind a speed horse that has been stopping lately over the last seven starts. She paid a solid $13.80 to win but more importantly the pick 5 paid $453.50 for $2. The $2 parlay over the 5 races was $252, so the payout was $200 more than the parlay with a 2-5 and a 1-5 shot in the sequence. When talking about value it doesn’t necessarily mean it has to be a longshot, if a horse that you think should be 1-5 is going off at 3-5 that is value. This pick 5 when looking at the sequence may have looked unplayable it turned out to be a good play. The play was 1x3x1x2x4=$24 for a $1, we played it for $5, a total cost of $120. We got back $1,133.75 for our $120 investment. Remember, when looking for value it can come in all forms at all different odds. Good luck!