But is this where the handicapping process ends? Is the wealth of paper and electronic statistics, crunched down and analyzed to the finest points enough to consistently pick winners? With an appropriate level of skill, bankroll and self-discipline, it certainly can be — but attaining those needed attributes is not a simple process. Furthermore, if numbers and running lines were all that were required to win at the handicapping game, wouldn’t there have been computer systems in place for years that led to sure-fire profits?

“Always keep in mind that if winning was only a matter of ‘crunching paper’ and properly interpreting past performances, IBM would have cornered the wagering market 50 years ago and our great game would be over,” said Joe Takach, an expert and longtime author of books on “physicality” handicapping, or judging the physical appearance of a racehorse.

How many times does the most experienced handicapper come up with what appears to be a dead-fit “lock” in a race, single the horse up-and-down in the exotics and watch the animal run a listless race and finish mid-pack? Maybe it doesn’t happen all the time, but it certainly occurs enough to be a detriment to the player’s confidence and most likely his bankroll. So how does one explain this phenomenon? Well, it could just be bad luck or maybe there’s another clue why. This is where Takach and his style of handicapping come in.

“Ninety percent of people think that horses are like an automobile — they get on it, turn the key and go,” says Takach. “If you turn on a football game … don’t they always talk about who is hurt (prior to kickoff)?”

For more than ten years, Takach and his associates have published the “Southern California Horses to Watch,” or SCHTW, which provides a variety of information to the horseplayer but mainly focuses on how horses looked in the paddock, on the track, in prerace warm-ups as well as how they pulled up after their most recent race. And now, available at www.joe-takach.com, they offer a groundbreaking “real time” service that gives subscribers a live update regarding the horses’ prerace appearance and the quality of their warm-ups. Known as the “Real Time Daily,” this state-of-the-art handicapping tool addresses the same areas as the regular SCHTW, but updates automatically every few seconds until post time. Yes, the site only covers the Southern California circuit of Santa Anita, Hollywood Park and Del Mar but is very useful to the simulcast player who counts those tracks among his regular plays or even the on-track patron who is not well-versed or experienced in judging horses by their appearance.

One of the unique aspects of Takach’s report is that — in addition to the more mainstream physicality concerns of coat appearance, stride, tail movement, ear position, and appearance of sweat — the SCHTW service focuses on various equipment changes that are not listed in the Form or track program that can tip-off certain problems a horse may have. They include bar shoes, covered frogs, blowouts, stops, and martingales — with explanations available in the users guide on what exactly these items are, what trainers use them for and why they are a bad sign in terms of a horse’s current condition. Again, with the “Real Time Daily” package, this information can help the player solidify their picks or possibly save a bad bet depending on whether the horse looks and warms-up well or if the runner appears to not be feeling 100 percent — giving the dedicated simulcast player a useful edge.

Also provided to members is a weekly review that lists numerous examples of horses, including many favorites, that the “Real Time Daily” SCHTW indicated were not looking their best by post time and ran accordingly disappointing races. These examples are provided by Takach to hammer home the value of his service and offer good reason to subscribe to the real-time feature. Following is a sample excerpt from the weekly review that included the eighth race at Santa Anita on Dec. 26, 2004.

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MASS MEDIA — This Bobby Frankel shipper sported 5 wins from only 7 lifetime starts when coming to California for the first time in his career. He had last won a Grade III affair 56 days prior at Belmont and sported an excellent 6-drill morning worktab to include a 59 and 3 “bullet” 6 days prior. He certainly had the “paper” credentials to be installed as today’s 6–5 race favorite. However, in today’s REAL TIME DAILY SCHTW, we sent up all the “red flags” when listing him as a 3 because he was walking short (SHORT) with pinned ears (PIN EARS) indicating he was quite irritated at something. He was never any threat when finishing 5th and beaten nearly 3 lengths. And again, he was the 6–5 race favorite.

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Naturally, this is not some fool-proof, magical system that Takach is offering, and sometimes horses that exhibit a slew of negative signs in the paddock and post parade do get up to win. However, Takach takes care to note that his SCHTW is not a selection service but simply a provider of additional, useful handicapping information. “We don’t ever try to teach people how to handicap,” said Takach. “We just offer proprietary information to make their selection process more simplistic.”

In review, Takach’s service provides a nightly report to its members listing the runners in the next day’s racing in Southern California, providing information on how they looked before and after their most recent start. For an additional subscription fee, the “Real Time Daily” report is available, which updates the regular report online in real time, providing the user with a live, “birds-eye view” of the horses prior to each race. The service also includes important information such as current track profiles, pedigree ratings on each horse in every race, a master list of horses to avoid wagering on and notes on whether Takach and his staff feel a horse is on the improve or in a declining pattern. Fees, additional subscription information and frequently asked questions can be easily accessed at www.joe-takach.com as well.