Are The Odds On Your Side?
Every racing fan of any real
experience knows that the prices their winners pay is of vital importance to their
financial success. However, various handicapping writers have caused some confusion on
this subject. A few authors have suggested that one should confine their wagers to horses
that go postward at no less than 8-1; others have argued that the smart player never backs
a horse that is held at odds of more than 4-1. Therefore, some racing fans are confused as
to just what they should do about price.
The perfect selection method, of
course, is one that produces a good percentage of winners at moderate prices, but which
also points out a winner now and then at really high odds. It isn't easy to find this
happy combination.
It's obvious that every horseplayer
needs a high-priced winner now and then in order to help offset the losses incurred during
a given period. The need for an occasional longshot winner is obvious because no matter
how good their selection method is, or how efficient they may be as a selector, nearly all
horseplayers will always back more losers than winners.
So it is clear that you can't earn a
steady profit if all of your winners are low-odds horsesóat least on a flat bet basis,
and progression wagering can prove highly dangerous in the hands of an inexperienced
operator.
The advice that one should stick to
selections that go postward at 8-1 or more is mathematically sound, but such a demand
limits a player's wagering action severely. Further, such a requirement will usually
result in a long string of consecutive losses, two facts which the average racing fan
dislikes.
So is there a truly satisfactory
answer to the price problem? We believe there is, but it involves the use of two methods
for making a selection.
A brief example will serve to make
this point clear. Suppose that your present method had been found to be entirely sound,
but the prices paid by the winners are a bit on the low side as compared to the winning
percentage.
Under such circumstances, the method
will show a small profit. However, in order to earn an adequate return for your effort it
is necessary to increase the amount of each wager to a level which may demand more capital
than you have available. For instance, if the method shows a yearly net profit of $3,500
on a flat $10.00 wager, one would have to back each selection with a $30.00 wager in order
to bring the yearly net up to a worthwhile figure.
The alternative to this scenario is
to employ a longshot method in conjunction with one's regular method of making selections.
We'll be emphasizing two criteria: 1) Make the odds demand for the longshot method 14-1 or
more, which will rule out many of the plays the method would normally point out; 2) Find a
system, if possible, that will point only a few plays each week at any one track. The
latter will prove difficult to accomplish. Hence the odds demand of 14-1 or more is the
more logical choice. The angle we'll examine this month has served us nicely and should
prove of help to you.
Several years ago, we noted that
some horses that won and paid $30.00 and more followed a distinct odds pattern. We also
noticed that most of these horses had moved up in class or claiming price last time out.
On the day when we first noticed these factors, there were three high-priced winners at
two different tracks. In every instance, the three horses won and paid $30.00 or more.
This triggered our curiosity to the point where we could not resist checking back to see
whether the same situation have prevailed in the past.
We soon discovered that the same
thing had been happening with reasonable frequency in the recent past. But we noticed that
when the odds today were less than 10-1, most of the qualified horses finished up the
track.
This called for an examination of
results charts and past performances for the previous year, and again we found the same
pattern repeating itself. This convinced us that some trainers make a practice of raising
a horse in class or claiming price one race before they intended to crack down.
We are not prepared to say why
trainers sometimes do this; however, it appears to be done in the interest of improving
the horse's odds in its next start. This assumption is based on the fact that too
frequently when such horses were held at moderate odds they failed to run in a successful
or impressive race.
During the survey period, we watched
the class factor to the extent of noting whether or not the horse was dropping in class or
claiming price today. We found that in most instances the horse dropped in class or
claiming price today. However, in some instances the horse went back for its trying effort
at the same price for which it was entered last start, and in a few instances and under
peculiar conditions a few of the winners went up in class again today.
This latter situation occurred
usually in starter allowance and starter handicap races, where the events were conditioned
for horses that had previously been entered for a claiming price. Technically, such horses
were moving up from a claiming event into either an allowance or handicap race. In
reality, the field was made up of nothing but claiming platers of a given grade.
However, we decided to confine our
selections to qualified horses that were not moving up in class again today, accepting
only those horses that were re-entered for a price identical to their last entered price
and those that were dropping down today. This has caused us to miss some good longshots.
Therefore, it is a question you should decide for yourself after making a check of no less
than three months.
We have never set an exact rule
about the odds between the next-to-last race and the most recent race. It is next to
impossible to do so effectively, because when one compares the odds at which a horse was
held in its next-to-last race with the odds at which it was held last time out, the
figures are relative. For example a horse that was held at even money in its next-to-last
race and at odds of 10-1 last time out represents an increase in odds of nine points.
Another horse that went off at 14-1
in its next-to-last race and 28-1 last time out represents and increase of 14 points. In
the first example the horse's odds last time out were 10 times as great as the odds in its
next-to-last race, while in the latter example the odds were only twice as much.
Since we demand odds of 14-1 or more
today, we do not believe that the exact ratio of the odds in the next-to-last and most
recent races should be restricted to any specific figure.
Following are the selection rules to
qualify a longshot selection.
1. The horse must have moved up in
claiming price $1,000 or more last start if entered in a claiming race, or one full grade
or more if it was entered in a non-claiming race in its next-to-last race.
2. The horse must have started at a
major track within the past 30 days, and its last race must have been run over a major
track if it is running today over a major course.
3. The horse must have finished in
the money in its next-to-last race, or it must have been running first, second or third at
the stretch call in its next-to-last race, being no more than 3 lengths off the leader at
that point.
4. The horse's odds in its most
recent race must have been 10-1 or more and they must be at least two times higher than
the horse's odds in its next-to-last race.
5. The horse must not be moving up
in class or claiming price today. It must be entered for the same class or at a lower
class than its entered class last time out.
The odds today must be 14-1 or higher.
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