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by Howard G. Sartin, Ph.D.
In the last issue of ATM I discussed letters sent to me by Editor Blair
from persons who were not enjoying the full benefits of the Ray Taulbot Pace
Calculator’s Highlight Pace Method. While none of the correspondents told me how they
were using the Calculator, I suspect that they were entering numbers for the PACE OF THE
HORSE being rated instead of the PACE OF THE RACE, as directed.
In the first article of this series we used the Pace Calculator to
evaluate a horse that will appear again in this one. STAR LAKE PETE earned a
PACE/SPEED FINAL RATING of 863. I stressed the requirement that you use the PACE OF THE
RACE, not the PACE OF THE HORSE under consideration. Had I figured the PACE OF THE HORSE,
as so many Pace Calculator owners seem to do, THIS would have been the result.
HORSE: STAR LAKE PETE (from Part I):
Calculating the PACE OF THE RACE:
Distance: 6 furlongs
RACE Final Time - 1:11 2/5
2nd Call Time of the RACE - :45 1/5 = 778 (Col. D)
FINAL RATING using SPEED RATING of 85 = 863 (Col. C)
Calculating the PACE OF THE HORSE WITH BEATEN LENGTHS
Final Time Beaten by 4 ½ LENGTHS - 1:12 1/5
2nd Call Time beaten 9 ¼ lengths - :47 =765 (Col. D)
FINAL RATING using the same 85 SPEED RATING = 850 (Col. C)
Using the Pace and Final times of the HORSE plus the Speed Rating
discount STAR LAKE PETE even further than he deserves. His 2nd Call PACE was dismal enough for some to
simply disqualify him in a sprint. I did NOT because he gained almost 5 lengths from 2nd
Call to finish, an indication
he may improve next out.
Those using the Pace and final Time of the HORSE, plus Speed Rating are
failing to take advantage of the PACE CALCULATOR’S predictive power. I stated it in
the first installment, but it bears repeating: One of Ray Taulbot’s greatest
contribution to racing was in basing his PACE CALCULATOR RATINGS on the fact that:
ALL WINNING HORSES EITHER SET OR OVERCOME THE PACE OF THE RACE
While STAR LAKE PETE overcame almost 5 lengths from 2nd Call to finish, he did NOT
overcome ENOUGH.
I have no intention of discounting in any way the use of AMER-VAR to
determine Daily Variant. I merely offer an alternative that is very quick. I use it with
great success, as do many of my clients. PLEASE NOTE that we use this procedure ONLY to
find the top 5 contenders. NOT FOR RANKING THEM!
When you open your form to a race simply take a pencil to the Speed
Rating and Variant as published in the DRF.
To use this procedure you must bring yourself to agree with a fact that
has been proven correct through 27 years of research. My personal clients call this the
SSR: Sartin Speed Rating. It’s based on the fact that a Daily Racing Form Variant of
17-18-19 equals 0 (ZERO). In other words if the DV is 17-18 or 19 DO NOT adjust the Speed
Rating.
For every VARIANT point OVER 19, INCREASE the SR by PLUS ONE.
For every VARIANT point UNDER 17, REDUCE the SR by MINUS ONE.
Depending on the severity of wetness at YOUR tracks, you may wish to
make no adjustments beyond a certain DV ceiling. Many use 28. In areas with dry climates,
they use 10 as a low, under which they make no further adjustment. This is a personal
option for your consideration.
To demonstrate this procedure, let’s go back to Santa Anita on
Oct. 2.
I’ll use only the TOP FIVE applicable SSR’S. Beyond these
CONTENDERS, the others were from minor tracks with dismal figures relative to these TOP
FIVE.
This is a six and one-half furlong race. Even though the Pace
Calculator directions give Distance and Turn Adjustments, a lot has been written
suggesting that the Pace Calculator works best when ALL horses come from the same
distance, even the same track. However, I’ve never had any problem with mixed
distances WITHIN the sprint or route structure. Track Class differentials appear each year
in ATM. However, EVERYONE should keep records of how well shippers do on the circuit(s)
where they wager.
NO TRACK CLASS ADJUSTMENT NUMBERS ARE ALWAYS COMPLETELY ACCURATE.
Neither are PARS, especially so-called PACE PARS, PURSE VALUE, ALLOWANCE PRICES or
CLAIMING LEVELS. Here’s a quote from Ray Taulbot:
I’ve written in bold ink the Adjusted SSR for each horse. Now
I’ll put each horse through the Pace Calculator.
IMWORTHETIME: Best of his last 3 was three back on July 15 at
Hollywood Park run at 6 ½ furlongs. This is a LONG way back. So I use it for
demonstration purposes only. Final Time was 1:17. The 2nd Call Pace was :44 1/5 for a rating of 787. From THAT way-back line
IMWORTHETIME earned its high rating strictly on the 2nd Call of :44 1/5. However, it LOST ground from there to the finish.
Based on its last two dismal races and our having to go back to HOL on July 15, I
eliminated the horse from WIN consideration.
STAR LAKE PETE: (done previously) Adjusted SR = 81.
Best of last 3 qualifying races: Last Race at Fairplex going 6
furlongs. The FPX meet immediately precedes the Oak Tree at Santa Anita meet. FPX is the
HIGHEST CLASS of all the Fair Tracks.
FINAL RATING using a RAW 85 SR = 863
ROUGH HUSTLE: (The odds on favorite) Last race: 5 ½ furlongs
Final Time of the Race - 1:04 1/5
2nd Call Pace - :45 4/5 = 779
FINAL RATING using a RAW 91 SR = 870
Using the Raw Speed Rating, his Final Rating IS 870. However, using RAW
SR’S or AMER-VAR or MY SSR, the Final Rating will be subject to whatever Daily
Variant Adjustment YOU employ. I’ll continue using MY own alternative for ELIMINATING
NON-CONTENDERS.
GALLAHAD: Last raced at 7 Furlongs. (Since this horse ran at a
sprint distance LONGER than today’s, some might say to give it a positive adjustment.
I’ll do it with NO distance adjustment. I did the same with INDOMABLE.
GALLAHAD
Final Time of the Race - 1:23 2/5
2nd Call PACE - :46 = 779
FINAL RATING using a RAW 96 SR = 876
INDOMABLE:
Last race: 7 Furlongs
Final Time of the Race -_ 1:23 2/5
2nd Call PACE - :45 2/5 = 782
FINAL RATING with RAW 98 SR = 879
LORD ROCHELLE: (2nd Favorite): Last Line: at Bay Meadows going 6 Furlongs. Adj. SR
– 88. I did NOT use 5 ½-furlong race two back. It was a $5K Claimer. Last Race and
Today’s is for $10K:
Final Time - 1:11 4/5
2nd Call PACE - :46 1/5 = 773
FINAL RATING with RAW 80 SR =853
RANKED BY RATINGS
1- INDOMABLE
2- GALLAHAD (Win)
3- ROUGH HUSTLE (Place)
4- STAR LAKE PETE
5- LORD ROCHELLE
I eliminated IMWORTHETIME. It got up and finished 3rd. On this race, The PACE
CALCULATOR did a very profitable job RAW, with nothing added.
Since this article is for general readership, I have no right to tell
you how to bet. Suggesting that you focus on overlays or that you bet TWO horses to win
would make me seem like a Missionary cutting down Totem Poles and putting up crosses or
vice versa. Mathematically, however, FIRST choices, be they from the Pace Calculator or
any other procedure, DO NOT win as often as one might expect; nor do they usually pay well
enough to produce consistent profit.
Consider this race:
INDOMABLE, the #1 Rated Horse, went off at 8.90-1. An overlay, and ONE
of my bets, GALLAHAD went to the post with odds of 18.40-1 as the biggest OVERLAY in the
race. He was my SECOND win bet. He paid $36.80 to win.
Betting $10 per horse: my outlay was $20; my gross $194; therefore, my
NET profit $194-$20 = $174. Thanks to the Pace Calculator.
For the ONE-HORSE bettor, who only bets the TOP choice: NET = 0.
Personally, I think North American Handicappers are adjustment happy, defeating
themselves by making too many subjectively oriented alterations to running lines; or
buying services that produce pars, pace pars and other figures distorting lines horses
truly run. It’s been said many times that most HORSE-PLAYERS don’t want to
profit, they just want to win races. MOST seem to prefer non-computerized procedures. If
just winning races, with no valid computerized aid, is your goal, RAY TAULBOT’S PACE
CALCULATOR is far better than whatever is second best.
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